IS WAR OF COMPROMISES OFF?

Robert Kocharyan's former adviser, president's representative in the National Assembly up to recent times, Garnik Isagulyan made a sensational statement in an interview with Hayeli.am about a secret list on the governmental "elite" of all time. Garnik Isagulyan stated that the Armenia-based Mher's door organization has this list which includes names of governmental figures of Armenia started from the Karabakh committee up to nowadays as well as information on their private and public activities. Isagulyan stated that according to that list, over 17 billion has been taken out of Armenia since 1994. Actually Isagulyan "revealed" the Armenian "masons". He states that the amount of the information owned by Mher's door is unavailable even to the law enforcement and special bodies of Armenia. Garnik Isgulyan is one of the most reliable people of Kocharyan's staff. Serzh Sargsyan started decreasing his importance. First, he abolished the Institute of political studies headed by Isagulyan. Then Serzh Sargsyan got rid of him as his adviser appointing him president's representative in NA. And quite recently, Serzh Sargsyan gave this office to Viktor Dallakyan. Days after this event, Isagulyan announces about the large-scale compromise on the former and present governments of Armenia. Isagulyan is surely not alone. Someone supports him. The point is about quite a serious factor which may be a bomb in the presidential elections. Consequently, there are local and foreign subjects interested in the outcome of this story. By the way, there were rumors on such a list also in 90ies, during Ter-Petrosyan's tenure when Garnik Isagulyan went underground during the criminal persecution against the ARF Dashnaktsutyun. Even if the list is just a bluff, it is not invented by Garnik Isagulyan but other subjects because the effect may be very serious, while Isagulyan could hardly have any reason to run such a great risk. The fact that the list was mentioned right after Isagulyan had been fired, hints that Robert Kocharyan stands behind this "disclosure" since Isagulyan is considered a person of the Kocharyan wing for which Serzh Sargsyan got rid of him little by little. But when the point is about a list containing information since the Karabakh committee, i.e. USSR, it becomes evident that Robert Kocharyan would hardly have possibility to ensure such a scale of the compromises. Only the special services of a country could own such huge information. That country is surely not Armenia because here the definition "special services" is quite relative since these services during the 90ies, maybe even up to now, were/are a branch of the Russian services. In other words, the sponsor of Garnik Isagulyan's game is not Robert Kocharyan but Moscow. This game is apparently launched due to the Russian dissatisfaction with Armenia's friendly ties with the West. It is not ruled out that in this context Serzh Sargsyan and the rest of the political class will be blackmailed for Sargsyan to limit his flirt with the West and act for Russian interests. But there is one interesting nuance which creates grounds to view the disclosure of the list from another angle. This story is unveiled after Serzh Sargsyan's consultation in the government. This meeting was nothing else but an instruction to the prime minister, prosecutor general and NSS head to restrain prior to the presidential elections the capital that may be used for political projects and plans against Serzh Sargsyan. Though no concrete names are mentioned, but the owners of the names know very well what Serzh Sargsyan means. In this sense, the revelation of the compromise list may be viewed in the context of "self-defense": the capital is trying to defend itself from Sargsyan's instructions. It is not ruled out that the "information sponsor" is again Russia which is trying to make the governmental intrigue in Armenia tenser hence enhancing its influence on the election processes. At the same time, there may be other possible versions. For example, the "disclosure" of the list of compromises may be initiated by Serzh Sargsyan thinking that he can do that now or never prior to the presidential elections. If this version is possible then Serzh Sargsyan could finally show that he controls the situation and all attempts to resist are vain. Here, the fact that Serzh Sargsyan has long held the office of the minister of internal affairs and national security may be interesting which could provide him with certain information. Though, despite this circumstance, Russia's help would surely be necessary to own such a list. Anyway, it is interesting that the list is revealed against the background of dynamic foreign events around Armenia, when the Safarov affair is still fresh, which, by the way, enabled the government to call on the political forces for consolidation around Serzh Sargsyan. It is also interesting that the information is revealed when there are rumors on the group of Taliban terrorists in Armenia, which was not refuted for a couple of hours after its spread but only in the second half of the day. This information harmed Russia's presence in Armenia as the security guarantor. Russian frontier troops are on the border with Armenia, consequently, it is their mistake if terrorists could pass the border. In this sense, it may sound unimaginable, but it should be ruled out that the official Yerevan, with Washington's support, /worth mentioning the U.S. appeal to its citizens in Armenia to be alert relating to possible terrorist attacks/, exchanged the information on the Taliban in the result of hours of negotiations with the Russians' list: Yerevan refuted, Russians gave the permission to partially reveal the list. There is one worrying question. Real wars are unfolded around Armenia one of which touches the life and security of our compatriots in Syria; there is danger of new wars, including the Karabakh issue, which may touch also the lives and security of the Armenian citizens, while the Armenian government is getting ready for the war of compromises. Though, on the other hand, maybe it's for the best. After all, it may be beneficial for Armenia if this war is started and all the "saints" are revealed. The point is that for a population of three million, for the small Armenia, the "saints" are too many and the society with the burden of these "saints" will find it hard to resist to the possible military challenges. Consequently, such lists are encouraged if they are disclosed up to the end because when they are unrevealed, they become dangerous for the country. This means the prosecutor general and the NSS need a new "special instruction" to find out what the list is about and if it contains proves on illegalities and abuses, it should be considered at the state level. And the managers of the list should explain why they knew everything but didn't let the society know about it. And if all this is just a bluff, then it is necessary to reveal the bluff because Armenia, as a country, unfortunately, is very often unable to react equivalently to not only serious challenges but also unserious bluffs. HAKOB BADALYAN

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