EITHER NEW ARGUMENT MUST BE INVENTED OR NEW ARRANGEMENT OF ELECTION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED

Many are interested how the death of Andranik Margaryan will affect the outcome of the parliamentary election on May 12. The form of the question on the possible change of the outcome of the election itself supposes that the outcome had already been planned, and the death of the prime minister will cause a change of this outcome. In this case, it becomes rather easy to answer this question – the outcome of the election will change to the degree the prime minister took part in planning this outcome. The problem is how the prime minister took part in it in reality. Of course, it would be too ingenuous to think that the map of the future parliament was drawn without taking into consideration the opinion of the prime minister, the leader of the majority party. It is natural that he had his own circle of mandates. Ostensibly, this circle may suffer too. In other words, the persons whom Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan allowed to enter the parliament on the demand of Andranik Margaryan may be turned out. It does not mean, however, that they will not appear in the parliament. They may lose the mandate gradually. They will be elected to parliament first, then they will be appointed to a post in the executive which they cannot refuse naturally, and the people of Robert Kocharyan or Serge Sargsyan may get their seat in the parliament, it depends who will become stronger in this period. In other words, the death of Andranik Margaryan will prolong the summation of the outcome of the parliamentary election by weeks, maybe even months until his wing is gradually ousted from the government.
Many people think the servitors of Andranik Margaryan will be willing to serve Robert Kocharyan or Serge Sargsyan. But this is a superficial idea. The point is that both Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan already have a great number of underlings and they do not need to extend their number. Especially considering that unlike Kocharyan and Sargsyan the idea, independent from the deepness of its perception, had a certain function for the circle of Andranik Margaryan. Meanwhile, any mentioning of the word “idea” sets in motion the mechanism of self-protection in the wing of the president or the minister of defense. Even false denial will not save the former pro-Margaryan wing. Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan need to satisfy their servitors first, and they will certainly use the opportunity to increase the number of their own mandates. After all, it took Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan much effort to persuade some outstanding representatives of their company that they must not have a seat in the parliament. Now that Andranik Margaryan is not alive, the “gone with stability” will ask Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan what prevents them from being generous as a master should be.
It will be very difficult to answer this question because so far the excuse was Andranik Margaryan. The subtlety of the situation is that Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan were reluctant to tell in time the “outcasts” that Robert Kocharyan or Serge Sargsyan were the obstacle. Perhaps they did not want to say that someone may obstruct them because it contradicts to the image of a handler of fates which blew the balloon in Armenia called government. They perhaps only explained to them that they agree to share the parliament with them out of respect for Andranik Margaryan. And since the prime minister was respected in the government for his personal traits first of all, this argument has a great subconscious effect on the servitors of the president and the defense minister. Now this argument does not work any more, consequently a new argument must be invented or a new arrangement of the election should be considered. In both cases the situation is complicated because in both cases they will be accountable. Of course, Churchill said a good politician should say one thing and later explain why it did not happen. However, it is not easy to make the people around the president and the defense minister read Churchill and then to explain them that Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan are politicians, not “godfathers”.
HAKOB BADALYAN

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