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DELUSION OF THE POLITICAL THOUGHT IN ARMENIA

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  Among most Armenian judgments following the short-war that turned from Georgian-Ossetian into Georgian-Russian the one that is come across more often is that what happened taught a lesson to Azerbaijan that conflicts cannot be resolved through a military way. In addition, the judgment on the lesson to Azerbaijan allows many people to say that thereby Azerbaijan has become weaker because it has lost the hope for the military way. Soon a lot of Armenians, both politicians and political scientists, may state that Azerbaijan is in a grave depression, and only his security guard would not let Ilham Aliyev get drowned in the Caspian Sea or jump from the highest bridge of Baku. In reality there seem to be two great delusions in Armenia regarding the Georgian-Russian clash. The first is that what happened showed that no conflict can be solved through the military way. I am sorry but can anyone say in what way the issue of giving away Abkhazia and South Ossetia was solved? Nobody doubts that those two subjects finally seceded from Georgia. Meanwhile, they would continue to hang up in the air if there were not for the short war between Georgia and Russia. If the issue was solved not in favor of Georgia, it does not mean that the issue was not solved through the military way. It is difficult to imagine that it would be possible to persuade Georgia to accept the loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia if there were not for the unsuccessful war that ignited. In other words, it is a fact that the problem of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was solved through war, that is the military way. Therefore, it is not Azerbaijan that should learn a lesson from what happened but perhaps Armenia because in the region the precedent of solving a conflict through war, even though a short one, was created. The problem is what will be considered as the desirable outcome of the war in the given situation. Therefore, there is no need to be deluded, thinking that what happened in the north of the Caucasus poured ice water on the oily head of Azerbaijan. The second delusion is related to the head of Azerbaijan. The judgment that oil has started sustaining the brain of that head is perhaps the second delusion of the politicians and political scientists of Armenia. In reality, Ilham Aliyev is not that ingenious not to understand that today in the world there is at least one or at best one or two states which are able to make an independent decision to wage a war on another state. Aliyev also understands that Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia are not the states which can wage a war independently. Hence, if someone thinks that after the start of the military action of Georgia the president of Azerbaijan was waiting impatiently before the TV set when the Georgians would displace the last Ossetian from South Ossetia to do the same with the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, they are mistaken. As to the militaristic statements that came immediately after the first success of the Georgian army in South Ossetia, they are part of the diplomatic work which Azerbaijan carries out successfully. It is thanks to that diplomatic work that no Minsk Group co-chair has made a pro-Armenian statement, meanwhile pro-Azerbaijani statements are as many as you wish. It is thanks to this diplomatic work that the indefinite issue of recognition of the right for self-determination is discussed at the table of the talks for the Karabakh conflict rather than the independence of Karabakh. Consequently, the situation on the diplomatic front, the daily growing difference between the economic and political weights of Armenia and Azerbaijan does not make the military solution necessary for Azerbaijan. At least in the visible future. Consequently, the success or failure of Georgia will hardly send Aliyev into melancholy , but it can delude the Armenians because it seems to be an ancient Armenian custom to measure others’ corn by their own bushel. Meanwhile, in the world they do not do so, in the world issues are measured and solved separately, without following the precedent because no situation in life ever repeats exactly. HAKOB BADALYAN

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• 1870  Death of Hakob Manvelyan (educator). He was born in 1802.
• 1896  Over a two-month period, the Turkish government massacres Armenians in Constantinople.
• 1932  Birth of Garegin I (Nshan Sargissyan) in Kesap (Syria), who later became Catholicos of the Armenian Church, the 131st Spiritual Leader of Armenian Holy Apostolic Church. He died in 1999.
• 1945  The First Congress of the Armenian Union of Soviet Artists opens in Yerevan.

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