THE FIGHT OF TWO AND THE FORTUNE OF THE THIRD

Perhaps there is every reason to suppose that the Armenian government today has at least two poles, because at least psychologically the presence of Robert Kocharyan in government is evident. At least the fact that different layers and groups of the society try to discern in any episode of the policies of the government the degree of influence, decision of Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan is enough for Robert Kocharyan to keep on influencing the system. As long as there are people who think that he is still there, Kocharyan will be there. Consequently, Serge Sargsyan faces the problem of having fewer and fewer people think, and in the course of time nobody think that Robert Kocharyan still underlies every decision of the government. In this sense, it seems clear what Serge Sargsyan should do and what Robert Kocharyan should do. One tries to remind about him possibly often, the other tries to have him forgotten possibly fast. The question occurs what the opposition facing this situation, this reality should do. By saying opposition perhaps only the movement led by Levon Ter-Petrosyan is meant because at least now there is no evidence to the existence of any other real opposition. Like the bipolar struggle inside the government is evident, it is evident that the opposition tries to benefit from that at least competition inside the government. In this sense, we may even say that the opposition has an advantage. The point is that having been the president of Armenia and having resigned in a period of controversies inside the government or maybe due to those controversies, Levon Ter-Petrosyan knows what loopholes occur in a government facing controversies and multiple poles, which can be used to undermine the system. On the other hand, however, Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan have come to power on the grounds of multi-polarity in the government, and they perhaps know what loopholes the government should fix or prevent not to be able to come to power. If Levon Ter-Petrosyan has the advantage of good perception of the structure of government, its nuances, this advantage is not over Serge Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan but all the other forces which have tried to be opposition in Armenia at different times, and to come to power. This is the reason why Levon Ter-Petrosyan succeeded in the struggle against the government better than anyone else. The technology of fruit and flower revolutions which are often spoken about, especially in the government camp, in reality have a purely technical purpose. First and foremost, the guarantee of success of Levon Ter-Petrosyan was a clear perception of the situation in Armenia, in the government, in the society, in the opposition. Therefore, when the struggle for influence is underway in the government, when questions have occurred in the society regarding the successful and fruitful course of Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the adequate thinking and perception becomes a vital necessity for Levon Ter-Petrosyan. When a disorder has occurred in the camp of the main rival, that is the government camp in connection with the top of the pyramid, the temptation arises that the political struggle against the government may fully fit in the logic of the saying “if two dogs fight, the passerby benefits”. Meanwhile, it would be a very primitive logic of political struggle, considering the simple system of interests which Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan have succeeded creating. Certainly, now they have got caught by the net of the system they have created but the problem of the opposition is not to be the third to get caught in it. That is why the opposition should continue its simple relation with the society. Meanwhile, the loss of simplicity in relations with the society is visible. The opposition becomes less and less understandable for the society, appears deadlocked. For the time being, it is an impression which may turn into a belief if it lasts long. The opposition seems to be obsessed with the problem of maneuvering between the government poles and geopolitical processes, which is important but becomes meaningless as soon as the underlying basis of that, the society, disappears. HAKOB BADALYAN

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Headlines for August 26, 2008

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Perhaps there is every reason to suppose that the Armenian government today has at least two poles, because at least psychologically the presence of Robert Kocharyan in government is evident. At least ...
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