KOCHARYAN VS SARGSYAN: BATTLE FOR REAL POWER

It is evident to almost everyone that during his presidency Serge Sargsyan has missed no chance to display his advantage over Robert Kocharyan, his power on him and regarding the realities that concern him. It is also natural because if the president de jure does not prove, persuade his team and the society that he also holds power de facto, his presidency may last too short or become a nightmare. The merging of the tax and customs services, Serge Sargsyan’s comments on that and unprecedented criticism against Vahram Barseghyan, one of the closest figures of Robert Kocharyan, is perhaps the most vivid evidence to the distinction of Serge Sargsyan’s government since Robert Kocharyan’s departure. However, if it is visible to almost anyone how Serge Sargsyan is crashing the myth of almightiness of Robert Kocharyan, trying to build his own power on that, a considerable part of the society does not believe that this competition, sometimes opposition is genuine. That part of the society is convinced that Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan are acting skillfully, to have the society view Serge Sargsyan in comparison with Robert Kocharyan and have Serge Sargsyan appear good on the background of bad Kocharyan. Thereby perhaps it aims to create the impression that in reality Serge Sargsyan’s main problem is not Levon Ter-Petrosyan with his popular movement but Robert Kocharyan with his reluctance to depart. Perhaps the truth is somewhere in the middle, as it is usually the case. In other words, the disagreement between Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan is genuine at some point, and in that sense maybe mutually useful if not arranged. Perhaps the problem is which component of that disagreement, or competition, or opposition is going to be more dominant regarding the direction of their further development. The point is that now Robert Kocharyan needs Serge Sargsyan to be the president. Sargsyan is a rather weak president, he has serious problems to tackle, legitimacy, economic policy, social affairs, reorganization of the government pyramid, manpower policy, relations with the opposition, foreign policy. In this situation, Serge Sargsyan regularly has to turn to Kocharyan for direct or indirect help, through his cadres who are many at the top levels of the government. And as long as Serge Sargsyan has to turn to Kocharyan for help, it will be easy for Robert Kocharyan to ensure the system that he is still there, and he makes decisions on crucial issues. It is useful for Serge Sargsyan to produce the impression on the society that his main hindrance, that is the main hindrance to reforms, is Robert Kocharyan with the inertia of his government. First, thereby Serge Sargsyan is trying to deprive Kocharyan of the least public support, blame him for the situation in the eye of the society, and thereby assume the status of guarantor of Kocharyan’s security. That is, “without me anything may happen to you”. On the other hand, by presenting Robert Kocharyan as the main hindrance to the implementation of his program, Serge Sargsyan attempts to weaken the wave of the opposition, showing that the opposition is not a problem to him. Therefore, in order to avoid the influence of Serge Sargsyan, Robert Kocharyan needs to come to power de jure because he is going to gradually lose de facto power, inevitably. After all, Kocharyan himself mentioned in his latest interview that government is not shadow responsibility, the responsibility of the government is distinct. Therefore, he knows better that if you lose power de jure, losing it de facto is just a matter of time. And now Robert Kocharyan is short of time. Even if Robert Kocharyan benefits from Serge Sargsyan the weak president, he nevertheless understands that as Sargsyan remains, he gradually becomes stronger, especially that the opposition helps him by constantly criticizing Kocharyan. And the stronger Serge Sargsyan becomes, the lesser Robert Kocharyan’s chance for de jure return becomes. And what is a strong government in Armenia? It is total control of all the economic and political levers. Robert Kocharyan had control, but now if Serge Sargsyan becomes stronger, he will get all the levers. At first sight it seems that it was possible to reach agreement on that issue, and the brothers-in-arms Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan could act as mutual guarantors of security and welfare. However, both of them realize that time has changed, and as the Georgian-Ossetian events showed, changes occurred both in the society and in the region. Therefore, Armenia will have to take serious steps. And in politics, especially in great politics, serious steps are taken in the form of compromise. You give something to gain another thing in return, or you give part to get the whole. Therefore, the possibility is big that Robert Kocharyan’s and Serge Sargsyan’s race is a struggle for ceding or not ceding. None of them wants to be the part which the other will give to keep the whole. Therefore, their opposition is not genuine or not genuine. Perhaps their opposition is natural. Nevertheless, there is a nuance which Serge Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan do not take into consideration. Along with the change of time the formula of strength of the Armenian government has also changed. In order to be a strong government it is not enough to control all the economic and political levers. Now it is necessary to control the moods of the society. Meanwhile, both Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan are far from that, and although Sargsyan is trying to take some steps to come closer, his efforts are doomed to failure since those steps are aimed to turn Kocharyan into a background for him, meanwhile for the society Kocharyan is already a past stage, in addition, thanks to Sargsyan. JAMES HAKOBYAN

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