TRACING “NATION LIBERATION” SERENDIPITY

The tension in the Russian-Georgian relations now seems complete because so far that tension has been incomplete. The point is that in the context of the Russian-Georgian tensions nothing extraordinary happened in Javakheti, which was however put right by the blast of July 17 and the subsequent occurrences which again destabilized Javakheti. Amazingly, and maybe already regularly tension in Javakheti coincides with tension in the Russian-Georgian relations. As soon as Moscow and Tbilisi disagree over something, some incident occurs in the region populated by Armenians which is in the rear of Tbilisi, and it becomes a new hotbed of tension with ensuing consequences. The recent tension is vivid evidence to that. There was a blast in Javakheti near the house of the police chief, the special force of Georgia set to work, searched and arrested several activists of the United Javakheti opposition movement, others escaped, there was a shooting incident, there are already two victims, both Armenians, both policemen, tension persists and tends to grow. This is a brief summary of what is happening in Javakheti, reported by different sources. No doubt, there is no need to judge who is fair, what is provocation, especially that the information is scarce and controversial. The question is why unrests start in Javakheti as soon as a recurrent stage of coldness between Russia and Georgia starts. The Georgian government would hardly try to create one more hotbed of tension in its country, and in the opposite side of the other two hotbeds, Abkhazia and Ossetia, seasoned with Russia. If we add to this the problems of Tbilisi relating to the regions populated by Azerbaijanis, which may make use of the existence of three “fronts” and set up the fourth one, the Georgian government should be a super daredevil to cause tension in Javakheti. Instead, considering the abovementioned circumstances, in the case of Russian and Georgian tension, tension in Javakheti favors Russia because firstly it distracts Georgia and secondly it weakens its rear. Certainly it is not a reason to argue that Moscow causes instability in Javakheti, but as criminalists say, look for the one whom the crime favors. Can this tension favor the West? It can if the West wants to pressure on Sahakashvili in this situation, to cool his head in the relations with Moscow. It is possible that Tbilisi confronts the Kremlin without having the instruction of the West because it is convinced that eventually the West will have to support Tbilisi rather than Medvedev. In other words, Sahakashvili is covertly blackmailing the West. In that case, the West perhaps tries to warn Tbilisi through a similarly covert action, avoiding scolding Sahakashvili for too much ardor out of diplomatic nuances. Also it should not be ruled out that the political and public forces in Javakheti which have an oppositionist stance try to make use of the outbursts of the Russian and Georgian tension and every time they hope to succeed, and cause tension, expecting that Tbilisi, busy with Moscow, will avoid clampdowns and will make concessions. In any case, it is perhaps clear that what is happening in Javakheti is not a self-sufficient process and is part of another process. Consequently, the official response of Armenia acquires a great importance. In addition, this is the case when silence is also an approach. However, besides silence, official Yerevan should also address to the noise that may occur in Armenia, and is already audible at the public and political level. Fortunately, the Armenian government has always succeeded not to yield to the provocations aimed to cause tension and fortunately it has succeeded not to obey Russia blindly because the interests of Armenia and Russia obviously clash regarding this issue. Unlike for Russia, for Armenia instability in Javakheti will produce consequences rather than results, which will be significant. Official Armenia has realized this, realizes and will realize in future. However, realizing is not enough, it is also necessary to explain to the part of the society who thinks that another tension in Javakheti is not another test of history for Armenians and their state but an opportunity for satisfying the nation-liberation aspirations granted by serendipity. On the other hand, however, it is possible that for official Yerevan the sharp response from Armenia is instrumental for the relations with Tbilisi, and by causing such response in Yerevan the Armenian government may be trying to obtain a trump card in the relation with the Georgian government, because with regard to the relation with Georgia Armenia seems to have no other trump card except Javakheti. HAKOB BADALYAN

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