DIALOGUE: PROGRESS OR ANOTHER PLOT
One of the recent home political topics is the dialogue between the government and the opposition. The international organizations have appealed to the sides for a dialogue, the government, the opposition, the representatives of the society speak about it. The attitudes of the sides to the appeals for a dialogue are approximately the following: the government is willing to start a dialogue without preconditions, the opposition sets forward almost the same conditions as those in the resolutions of international organizations. In the post-election period the so-called new government of Armenia was unable or reluctant to make moves to relieve tension and win over the least confidence of the society. The ruling coalition includes the same political forces which were politically broke after the recent political events, and lost the support of the society. For its part, the government underwent some cosmetic changes and rotations. If the coalition government of 2003 more or less reflected the logic of the internal development of Armenia, the present coalition which is like badly-mended patchwork is not adequate to the reality that the Armenian government is facing. Many predict a short life for the coalition but it does not matter how long it will last, five years or five months. It is obvious that the period through which the coalition will last will be a waste of time for Armenia. This coalition is not based on the public mechanisms of shaping government but on internal arrangements which have nothing to do with the problems that the country is facing. What expectations may the government pole have from a dialogue in this situation? This expectation is like the situation of a person who has accidentally become rich, and enjoyed life but feels somehow uneasy now, not because of remorse but because he is bothered by something. And now he wants a “dialogue” to enjoy life at full. The opposition, that is the popular movement led by Levon Ter-Petrosyan, stated they cannot ignore the factor of Serge Sargsyan, even though they believe he has a problem of legitimacy. The opposition demands to implement the requirements of the PACE resolution, releasing the opposition activists, lifting constraints on freedoms, etc. Today the opposition has appeared in a situation when it controls the situation and in case of correct moves in the internal and external spheres it can reach tangible results. On the other hand, any effort of the opposition for a dialogue can be viewed as a deal with the government, and here is why. The point is whether the society needs the dialogue which the political forces are talking about. The society wonders how it will favor establishment of Constitutional order, the rule of law, rights and freedoms, equal opportunities. These are questions which have become a topic of discourse for the first time in the history of Armenia. And in this situation when a ruling coalition based on internal arrangements has emerged, when the church, the academic and cultural intelligentsia, different political scientists, observers, experts, media have become part of those arrangements, the society discerns in those appeals for a dialogue the intention of the political forces to make a deal behind its back. The events of the recent few months have played an essential role in the life of Armenia. The pole was born which is called society. For the time being it is weak but despite weakness it is considerably ahead of the political system. The political forces will either keep up with it or try to destroy this pole which is the only real danger to the system that has emerged in Armenia. The second option is more possible, considering that the parties forming the coalition are also aware that they are unable to create a situation of new quality and have become a main hindrance to the development of Armenia. And the way of destruction of this pole could be the dialogue as perceived by the present political system. In this context, the home political situation in Armenia seems to have no way out. This judgment is true in the context in which the present “elite” imagines the “dialogue”. However, the society can already see the way out of this crisis, which supposes definite moves, first of all the disbandment of parliament and a new parliamentary election. There is every legal and moral reason for that: the parliament does not reflect public moods, it has passed an unconstitutional law. The new parliament may set to structural reforms, which supposes elimination of crisis. From the point of view of the government camp, it would certainly be something like a suicide. It is even hard to imagine that the parties of the coalition, the owners of the black economy, the people working on them will agree to this. It will mean that these parties will leave the political sphere once and for all. Naturally, it will favor the Armenian state and people only but not the leaders of those parties who will be up for holding on to their status through a “dialogue”. However, the situation in Armenia is such that even if the government does not make definite moves towards progress, it is nevertheless impossible to stop time. And it may be better for the society in the sense of ridding of illusions. HAIK ARAMYAN
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