WHAT IS ARKADY GHUKASYAN AFRAID OF?
- The political forces of Nagorno Karabakh started consultations over the presidential election of July 19, 2007. And the most striking thing on these days is the obvious self-restraint of the pro-government political forces in spelling out their stance publicly. The leader of the Democratic Party of Artsakh, Speaker Ashot Ghulyan has stated recently that the political party will state its stance in the period of nomination of candidates. The Azat Hayrenik Party, which “tacitly” supports Bako Sahakyan, the head of the National Security Service, would not make up its mind to speak out.
It is also notable that almost all the parties of Karabakh have said not to name candidates and to support a single candidate. Even the most sophisticated party in Karabakh, the ARF Dashnaktsutyun, stated they will consider naming a candidate only when the idea of a single candidate fails.
There is something odd about all this. Of course, the representatives of the political forces are inclined to explain their stance by devotion to the public consensus, the loyalty to the ideals of solidarity. However, the observers who know the NKR political sphere well, explain this style of work of the majority of parties by the fact that the political parties are not established, and their dependence on the executive, more exactly, President Arkady Ghukasyan.
As the election campaign is drawing nearer in NKR, a situation has occurred when the pro-government forces at once took to the political plans of Arkady Ghukasyan who has denied likelihood to run a third term, rejecting their own independent initiatives. President Ghukasyan, who said allegedly to stay aloof from the candidacy of the heir, appears to be imposing consistently his supporter Bako Sahakyan on the political forces. This is the prosaic pre-election situation in NKR. The present actions of the pro-government forces are a mere demonstration of efforts to localize the election campaign around Ghukasyan’s political plans.
However, it is obvious now that this ingenuous move of the government and the pro-government forces crushed into other opinions, which have started prevailing among the NKR political forces and the society. Not everyone in Karabakh wants to transform the election campaign into a predetermined game of the presidential team.
The bid of the pro-president forces to solve the problem of elections on their wish and by an exclusive right aroused dissatisfaction not only among the public but also the political forces. This circumstance was revealed not only in the divide of opinions on the expediency of nomination of Bako Sahakyan but also the campaign of the Karabakh society for the nomination of Masis Mayilyan, the deputy minister of foreign affairs of NKR as an alternative candidate.
The half-hidden remarks coming from the presidential “camp” in address to the supporters of Masis Mayilyan and his nomination as an alternative candidate suggest that the emergence of this alternative is perceived by the “team” as a threat to Ghukasyan’s effort of a fast replacement of president behind the back of people. In other words, it becomes clear that Ghukasyan is reluctant to hold a free election: they try to transform the presidential election into a process of a mechanical legalization of his own functionary.
Generally, there is nothing strange about it against the other countries of the post-Soviet state, where the elections are viewed as a mechanism of reproduction of the government. The same is typical of the actions of the executive of Armenia. Everywhere the “stake” is on paralyzing the election and predetermining the political plans. In different countries only the conditions of implementation of the programs of reproduction of governments are different.
The fact that Ghukasyan’s team is intolerant towards the idea of an alternative election has its logic. And this logic stems from the fact of the persons involved in this: Bako Sahakyan, a “disguised heir”, and Masis Mayilyan, an alternative figure. The political characteristics of these two figures are different. Many realize that in the pre-election period the mere emergence of Masis Mayilyan may frustrate the political plans of Arkady Ghukasyan.
It is difficult to tell why Arkady Ghukasyan chose Bako Sahakyan’s candidacy. In Stepanakert, for instance, they say by preferring the most inapt “heir” Ghukasyan is preparing ground for the departure of Sahakyan, who is politically bankrupt, and his fast return to the post of president “at the request of the working class”. This hypothesis is confirmed by the recent statements by Ghukasyan that he is likely to stay in Karabakh and help his “nominee”.
Formerly Speaker Ashot Ghulyan was said to be considered as a candidate, who would be more acceptable for the society than Bako Sahakyan. However, it did not take place. Most observers are inclined to consider the reason to be the fact that Ghukasyan’s plans could at once acquire real force in case they got the support of the Armenian leadership. Recently in the government camp of NKR the opinion of the Armenian government prevails over the opinion of their own president. Especially now when Ghukasyan is referred to as a figure who is going to leave, his efforts to “pave” the way for the next president may be popular with few people because are not backed by the Armenian president Robert Kocharyan.
Perhaps Ashot Ghulyan did not fill the “cartridge” of the government. It became clear that Arkady Ghukasyan’s plans were based on Bako Sahakyan’s figure, which made his initiative for the reproduction of the government more difficult. Even most supporters of Ghukasyan know that Bako Sahakyan may foil the plans by merely appearing to the “public” for the first time. Let alone the inadequacy of the political and diplomatic characteristic of this person for a presidential candidate. Even many figures who know him say Sahakyan has habits which are dangerous for the political system of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.
It is obvious that Bako Sahakyan needs to be “displayed” for a while. The intrigues he is involved in arouse the wish in many to get acquainted with him, ask him a few important questions, and most importantly to look him in the eye (it is possible that the questions will become unnecessary after looking him in the eye). And the problem is not that Bako Sahakyan is the head of the special service, and his relations with suspicious agencies were noticed.
President Ghukasyan must know about the complications that he may face if the election campaign is made public, and the NKR society gets a possibility to compare Bako Sahakyan and Masis Mayilyan. In this case a lot of questions will occur in Arkady Ghukasyan. Moreover, Ghukasyan will have to reply to all the backstage “incitements” that there are no worthy candidates in Karabakh (Arkady Ghukasyan’s main argument in the stage of daydreaming about a third term).
This is not spelled out loudly, but in Karabakh everyone knows this. Arkady Ghukasyan’s team does not dream of such future. Therefore, they preferred backstage consultations, where the half-truth about “Kocharyan’s okay” for the nomination of Bako Sahakyan is exaggerated in half-whisper as a “forceful pro argument” for Arkady Ghukasyan’s plans. Meanwhile, the truth is that the ban on running in the election has been lifted from Bako Sahakyan without any conditions. The goal of the strategy of Ghukasyan’s proponents is clear: they intend to persuade everyone beforehand to reject an alternative election and guarantee security for the head of security from a public election campaign which he would hardly be able to stand. In addition, they also have to create obstacles to the nomination of Masis Mayilyan.
In Karabakh it is clear to many that the victory of Masis Mayilyan in the election means political and economic reforms. Masis Mayilyan is one of the figures whom Arkady Ghukasyan consistently hid from the outer world. This career diplomat has worked with four ministers of foreign affairs whose names nobody remembers. Arkady Ghukasyan still wishes to hide his name.
It seemed that the NKR president who was for eternal democracy should be happy to promote democracy in Nagorno Karabakh. However, as it happens often, for many democracy ends where personal interests start. And the emergence of Masis Mayilyan, even in the capacity of a presidential candidate, means apart from all the end of the lasting demagogy of the “irreplaceable Karabakh diplomat Ghukasyan” who is permanently sought for not only by the people of Karabakh. It is clear that Ghukasyan would not like to put an end to his political career and enable a pan-national “test” of things that are known to him only.
However, it appears that he has not chosen the right way, and the wishes and the reality do not always match. At one moment one has to accept one’s destiny. However, at that moment it is better to display one’s best facets. The people of Karabakh do not need this “test” either. The president’s office ends, he must leave office in a dignified way. But first he must perform his duty to people and provide a possibility for a free election in the country.
- HAIK ARAMYAN
WHAT IS ARKADY GHUKASYAN AFRAID OF?
HAIK ARAMYANThe political forces of Nagorno Karabakh started consultations over the presidential election of July 19, 2007. And the most striking thing on these days is the obvious self-restraint of the pro-government ...
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- 1800 Birth of Karapet Papazyan (composer and conductor).
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