SIMPLICITY IS WORSE THAN THIEVERY

IGOR MURADYAN
The Karabakh society has always amazed with its urge for oversimplifying any issue, public relations in every sphere. This urge for simplicity, more exactly the “political laziness” is the worst threat against the state and the society. This simplicity, which is presented as a local custom, moreover, as a tradition, is encouraged by different local authorities and the wastes of the Karabakh ethnicity based in Yerevan. In Stepanakert not even the relatively knowledgeable people understand that the real goal of the Karabakh movement was to put an end to this simplicity and one-dimensionality, and not only in the province of Karabakh. I have tracked the political and social processes in all the unrecognized states and uncontrollable territories, including the Balkans and the Near East. In those places where the elites could not wait to lose their dream and did another revolution, now the successful stage of social adaptation and development was followed by degradation and decline. Nevertheless, one way or another, the development of a perfect foreign policy and identification as a real subject became the conscious or subconscious goal of this social revolution. In fact, in all the unrecognized countries the issue of subjectness became the concern of either the United States or Russia, depending on the given situation and interests. NKR was a special case.
It appears that real hysteria has started in Stepanakert. We could expect anything except such a wild reaction of the NKR government to the emergence of an oppositionist, more exactly an alternative presidential candidate. It seems that there is nothing to worry or be nervous about. What has happened? Only a few articles on the new political situation. The opposition in Karabakh is likely to set forward a candidate who is not related to the present government groups. Even if this candidate had significant resources to back him, this circumstance would not have aroused such a wild reaction. In this case, however, there is no special secret. A major threat for the present government in Stepanakert is that President Robert Kocharyan is unlikely to support the persons set forward by the government for the post of president of NKR. Moreover, it appears that Robert Kocharyan is likely to endorse the alternative politician running for the post of president. All this is highly clear and can be explained.
The upcoming Armenian parliamentary election on May 12, 2007 will certainly be unusual and different from all the previous elections. This election can hardly be called fair or honest or something else by the terms of the “post-Soviet recidivist consciousness”. However, this election will be largely determined by the external political conditions or, in other words, will get an international importance. Such a relict institution like the “Minsk Group” would have expired a long time ago if its functions were confined to the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. The “Minsk Group” is a format of relations between the great powers which have priorities in the region and are interested in a number of regional political issues. The format of relations of the United States, Russia and France enabled to make a paradigm of the “Armenian reality”, including the electoral process and state building in Armenia which is welcome in the current complicated historical stage. Having no oil reserves and a rather vulnerable position, Armenia cannot ignore offers of help from the great powers. The three powers certainly agree on the problems of Armenia, in the framework of their interests, of course, but based on the understanding of the fact that Armenia as a Christian country must be accepted to the North Atlantic space of democracy where Russia and Turkey have been accepted as Western states with democratic contents. It would be highly irresponsible if Robert Kocharyan ignored this concept. In the given case, Russia’s position is notable, which made it clear that its partners and allies cannot miss the chance to become recognized democratic states without “fruit and flower revolutions”. On a scrutiny it is possible to come to analogical conclusions from the official documents of the U.S. Department of State, as well as the pronouncements of the U.S. ambassadors in the West Europe. However, there are more detailed facts and circumstances, evidence that there is a peculiar “plot of silence”. This is not enough, either. The problem is that this “plot” exists really, and without “silence”. Besides certain requirements from the political processes in Armenia, the United States and France (which represents Europe) suppose that the growing gap between political processes in Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and analogical processes in the Republic of Armenia is unacceptable. The United States which arrived at the thought of necessity of granting sovereignty to the “uncontrollable territories” in 2002, is no longer interested in the degradation and decline of state and public conditions in the Karabakh province with changing conditions, requirements and functions. Besides these circumstances and requirements, Robert Kocharyan realizes, of course, that the period of political “reservation” in NKR has passed, and the important moment of identifying NKR as a real subject has come. Yes but who can act as the “guide” of this subject. In the meantime, sovereignty is not a crucially inevitable process. It could be put off for 10-15 years, or rejected at all.
However, besides the international aspect, there are other circumstances as well. Robert Kocharyan is facing a different problem of maintaining his political position and administrative possibilities, already in an informal position. In this situation, the province of Karabakh cannot remain the political resource of Kocharyan who appears to think more about the steadiness of his position. However, the “obedience” of NKR cannot match Robert Kocharyan’s interests any more, because “obedience” is a precarious category. Robert Kocharyan knows his historical homeland and does not have illusions of public consciousness of the population. We all have seen a lot in our homeland, and as one of the commanders of the Karabakh war said, “What could have happened in Karabakh, and whatever did not happen in Karabakh.” A more acceptable partner for Robert Kocharyan in Stepanakert could be the real president elect of NKR. NKR cannot continue to stay aloof from criticism and the zone of international political interests. At any rate, we should have perceived the scandalous statement of our old acquaintance Elizabeth Jones on the state of things in NKR positively.
The possible presidential candidates President Ghukasyan pushes forward – Speaker Ashot Ghulyan and the head of the NKR Security Service Bako Sahakyan – could be considered as the typical Karabakhis, in other words, by a widely-spread evaluation, they are good companions who are able to come to rescue, to support, are not harmful like many other officials of Stepanakert, real patriots. Generally, in Stepanakert it is already difficult to discredit a person. However, Ashot Ghulyan is the speaker of the National Assembly which could be called anything but a parliament. This so-called parliament was silent all through 2006 which was declared as a crucial year. It was literally silent, in stupor and fear like a school of wise gudgeons. What is more, Ashot Ghulyan explains it by “reluctance to take actions at random”, referring to diplomacy and politics. As to Bako Sahakyan, nothing is known about his political stance. Who in this world needs obedience? The following question arises: why does Arkady Ghukasyan need an obedient, a humble person who is not good at international politics? If one can answer this question, one can perceive the spirit of the establishment in Stepanakert. However, it is possible that the head of the security service is still unaware of the existence of agents of foreign intelligences in NKR. We could list the names of these agents but only after a real presidential election, otherwise it would be meaningless.

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IGOR MURADYAN The Karabakh society has always amazed with its urge for oversimplifying any issue, public relations in every sphere. This urge for simplicity, more exactly the “political laziness” is the ...