IT DEPENDS ON WHAT WE MEAN BY ARMENIA
- Robert Kocharyan did not go to Sochi empty handed. The president of Armenia made an interesting statement in Sochi that Russia, which is according to Putin in the “shameful third place” by the volume of investments in Armenia, will go up to the first place in March. It means Russia is likely to make immense investments in Armenia. It is interesting to know in which sphere the investments will be made. Before January 24 when Robert Kocharyan made this statement no big Russian investments had been considered. There are spheres, of course, where the Russians can and have to make investments, namely the four companies transferred to Russia in return for the debt. However, the Kremlin has just proposed to its investors to make investments in these companies. In other words, perhaps it is not worthwhile to wait until it will take Russia up to the first place. Can Armentel which was bought by Vimpelcom take Russia to the first place? However, the leadership of Vimpelcom has already held several news conferences in Armenia and did not mention any significant investments. And perhaps it will not make investments until May or June when the problem of monopoly is solved. The next possible spot of investments is the fifth generating unit; Russia committed to investing about 200 million dollars. This is a long-term process, however, and even the least part of it will not be made until March.
In other words, no other sphere is seen where Russia could make investments and rise to the first place. However, it would be a crucial mistake to go to Sochi and pronounce meaningless words, and Robert Kocharyan has never made such a mistake. Consequently, he knows something. And since in Armenia public awareness is also on the level of knowing something, we have to build an attempt of somehow explaining the president’s statement on suggestions, which stem from the public awareness of something. And the public knows that an important event may happen by March. It is the opening of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline. Besides, the public also knows that if Russia makes an investment in Armenia, it does it through gaining what already exists, not through setting up, creating something new. Ostensibly, the Russian investments will grow by March thanks to the gas pipeline. It is interesting to know how, for Iran built the pipeline on credit, i.e. it lent about 100 million dollars to Armenia which will be repaid in electricity generated at the Thermal Power Plant of Hrazdan. Russia will acquire the gas pipeline, and help Armenia to repay 100 million dollars before generating this energy. In other words, it will appear that Russia built the pipeline rather than Iran. Iran may not like this and decide to supply no gas to Armenia, despite the ready pipeline. It is always possible to find a reason. Meanwhile, Armenia has already stated that it does not need more gas supply. In other words, you do whatever you want. Russia needs no gas either. Why should Russia use Iranian gas in its thermal power plant if has its own gas. Instead, the Russians are solving a strategic problem for them – they acquire the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline which could be a transit pipeline. More exactly, it could have been a transit pipeline. Apparently, however, we do not need more gas, and we do not need more transit. All we want is Russia in the first place and feel good.
Is such development helpful for Armenia? It depends on what we mean when we say Armenia. If we mean the state, which has interests, it is no way helpful. But if we mean a government which has its own interests, it is perhaps helpful, otherwise they would wish Armenia rose to the first place in the region rather than Russia.
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