U.S. WILL NOT ISOLATE ARMENIA BUT WILL ISOLATE RUSSIAN FORT WITHOUT REMORSE
- The statement of the United States that they cannot prevent Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan from building the Kars-Akhalkalaki railroad can be perceived differently in Armenia. First, it may seem that this statement contradicts to the regional policy of the United States the core of which is integration of all the countries of the region, including Armenia. In this context, the United States can be thought to be playing a double game since on the one hand it upholds integration and on the other hand it makes no efforts against the project which obstructs integration. The point is that the public in Armenia believes that if the United States wants something, it will be a matter of hours or days to impose it on Turkey, Georgia or Azerbaijan. Unfortunately, however, not only the majority of the public but also the ruling elite think so, who hope that the United States will not let Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan to isolate Armenia by such an “immoral” step, like Vardan Oskanyan once described the plan to build a railroad. The problem is that the ruling elite in Armenia views similar big political projects in the frame of morality, i.e. “appropriate, unappropriate”. Meanwhile, even the primary school children dreaming of diplomacy on the desk know about Churchill’s theory about the void theory of eternal friends and foes and constant interests.
Hence, the stance of the United States should be viewed in this context. And in this case it becomes apparent that the statements of the United States are not controversial. Of course, the United States is conducting a policy on regional integration, which involved cooperation among the three countries of the South Caucasus and the neighboring states. However, the United States can realize that it will be highly difficult to fulfil this prospect and may take several decades. Meanwhile, it is impossible and unreasonable to stop the movement of the world until integration emerges in the South Caucasus, until the Armenians, Turks, Georgians and Azerbaijanis start considering each other as neighbors not foes. The construction of Kars-Akhalkalaki certainly cannot promote integration if it eventually leaves out the Armenians from this circle. The problem, however, is that the United States needs the South Caucasus not as a deadway or an oil base but as a way to the Central Asia. And Russia is on this way, which considers it as its historical domain. And in order to make this way useful it is necessary to remove Russia or at least diminish its importance. And it is possible only through infrastructures in the South Caucasus, on which Russia has no influence.
At this point it is time to think why the United States had not announced they are unable to stop the construction of the Kars-Akhalkalaki railroad, whereas now they have announced it twice within a month. And before thinking about this it is worthwhile to remember that presently the main railroad in the South Caucasus passes via Armenia and official Yerevan insists on opening it. At the same time, it is worthwhile to remember that in 2007 the management of the Armenian railroad will be conceded. The Armenian minister of transport and communication stated that they would like Russia to take up the management of the railroad. In other words, the section of the railroad running through Armenia is given to Russia. In this case, it is clear that Kars-Akhalkalaki becomes a geopolitical necessity, even though the United States cares for Armenia. Moreover, perhaps they care about Armenia when they make these statements to make clear for the Armenian ruling elite that the United States is reluctant to isolate Armenia but will isolate a Russian fort without remorse.
- HAKOB BADALYAN
U.S. WILL NOT ISOLATE ARMENIA BUT WILL ISOLATE RUSSIAN FORT WITHOUT REMORSE
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