ARMENIA-GEORGIA

New Situation Opens New Prospects

President Serge Sargsyan’s yesterday’s visit to Georgia is one of the most remarkable and important events observed in both countries as well as the whole South Caucasian region in the course of the past two weeks.
As we know, the Armenian-Georgian interstate relations stood a difficult test during the Russian-Georgian war. Being Russia’s strategic ally on the one hand and Georgia’s direct neighbor on the other, Armenia managed, after all, to maintain neutrality without damaging the interests of any of the parties to the conflict.
Although after Russia’s recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia Armenia acted in compliance with its commitments under the CIS Collective Treaty Organization and acceded to the joint statement condemning the steps of the official Tbilisi, it refused to recognize the independence of the two breakaway republics of Georgia.
Of course, the balanced and restrained attitude of the official Yerevan gave rise to certain questions among the parties to the conflict. However, such questions were definitely justified from the point of view of national interests. A country blockaded by Azerbaijan and Turkey and having a transportation and communication channel passing via the territory of Georgia as well as an Armenian community in that country couldn’t have acted otherwise.
And the geopolitical developments taking place in South Ossetia following the Russian-Georgian war came to prove that the balanced and restrained policy adopted by Armenia was not only the only way towards overcoming the force majeure but also the prerequisite for obtaining the required “freedom of hands” in the course of the further developments. And that is proven by the following three realities:
First: The Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan transportation and communications axis that was being formed in the South Caucasus under the auspices of the West and with the active participation of Turkey began collapsing in a gradual though consistent manner in the post-war period. The evidence of it is the halting of the export of the Azerbaijani oil via the Baku-Jehyan oil pipeline as well as Ankara’s hesitations about the expediency of building the Kars -Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi railway corridor.
Second: Having lost South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Georgia linked its destiny with the prospect of being integrated to the Western infra-structures at a time when Turkey and Azerbaijan, the “hostile neighbors” of Armenia, initiated attempts of a dialogue with Russia, the only real strategic partner of our country.
Third: Russia and Georgia which became “sworn enemies” as a result of these two simultaneous processes on the one hand and Russia, Turkey and Azerbaijan which are striving to become “sworn friends” on the other hand sketched a specific kind of new “chessboard” around Armenia, requiring our country to strengthen its previous cooperation and mutual trust with Georgia in order to “play” without errors.
On the one hand, Georgia is a defeated and weakened neighbor for Armenia, but on the other hand, it is a country playing the role of a “regional bridgehead” for the United States and the European Union. From the point of view of the national interests of Armenia, it is not absolutely advantageous to shift the “sharp angels” of the West-Russia conflict to the South Caucasus automatically.
Any such conflict increases the value and importance of Turkey and hence – Azerbaijan, in the eyes of the west and especially Russia. At the same time, it also reduces Armenia’s potentials for conducting a complementary policy.
Therefore, the maintenance of the “window” looking to the West through Georgia is Armenia’s only guarantee ensuring the on-going nature of the policy it has adopted for raising its weigh and value for all the “players” in the region. In such conditions, neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan will view our country as a “change” for the “sworn friendship” with Moscow, and the Russian political scientists will no longer say that “the Armenians have nowhere to escape, anyway”.
This means that in conditions of the present-day situation, both Armenia and Georgia are capable of finding ways towards the solution of the existing problems in the bilateral relations in a more speedy and rational manner. These concern not only the problems in the sphere of transport and communication, but also the situation of the Armenians living in Javahk and the other regions of Georgia.
It’s no secret that Javahk has found itself in an ambiguous situation following the Russian-Georgian war. On the one hand, Javahk loses its value as a Turkish-Georgian-Azerbaijani transportation-communication junction, and on the other hand, the serious powers interested in the region become more actively interested in the prospect of making the Armenian-populated territory of Georgia one of the “subjects” of the implementation of Georgia’s federalization program.
The situation of the Armenians living in the other regions of Georgia has also changed significantly as the country received new and large groups of Georgian and Svan immigrants as a result of the Russian-Georgian war. At the same time, the situation of the Georgian-Armenians working in Russia has become complicated, as these people have found themselves “between the devil and the deep sea” so to say.
Besides, the problems of returning the Armenian churches expropriated in Tbilisi and other towns of Georgia, providing the Armenian schools with text-books and pedagogues and a number of other educational and cultural issues continue to remain acute.
The bilateral willingness of having a thorough discussion over all these issues and finding relevant solutions in conditions of the new regional developments can undoubtedly create a positive atmosphere for the further extension of the Armenian-Georgian dialogue and cooperation.
VARDAN GRIGORYAN

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