AZERBAIJANI DIPLOMACY HOLDS NO VICTORY
- Thus, in the frameworks of their regional visit, the Co-Chairs of the Minsk Group yesterday visited Stepanakert and had a meeting with the NKR authorities.
Was this a “pro-forma” visit or do the Co-Chairs still hope that it will be possible to push the Azerbaijani authorities towards the implementation of the “Madrid” proposals prior to the presidential elections?
VAHRAM ATANESYAN
Head of the NA Committee on Foreign Relations
“In general, I don’t think that any visit of the Co-Chairs may be considered as a regular one, because if such visits were of regular, usual and ordinary nature, the Co-Chairs would prefer not to visit the region at all. That’s to say, each visit does really mean something.
As shown by the overall results of the visits, the international community, on behalf of the Co-Chairs of the Minsk Group, is interested in the settlement of the conflict. As to what extent the parties perceive that attitude is a different matter. But the Co-Chairs are trying to find a mutually acceptable solution which cannot give way to any divergence of opinions.
As regards the most recent visit of the Co-Chairs, it should be estimated the G-8 Foreign Ministers’ joint statement in the context of the confirmations concerning the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. My impression is that they are an additional proof showing that the mediators do not approve the conflict settlement prospect supported and urged forward by Azerbaijan.”
“Do you mean Azerbaijan’s ambitions for “solving” the problem through military operations?”
“The matter is first of all addressed to the efforts of bringing the settlement process beyond the frameworks of the OSCE Minsk Group and transferring it to other international tribunals, particularly, the UN Security Council and Assembly. And the enthusiasm of the Azerbaijani diplomacy seems to be giving way after the adoption of the well-known UN Resolution.
In particular, I believe that the agreement reached between the two Presidents with regard to continuing the talks based on the Madrid principles testifies to the fact that Azerbaijan’s attacking policy in the panorama of the undesirable pre-electoral and post-electoral developments of Armenia is beginning to retreat.
In the meantime, Azerbaijan is certainly trying to reiterate its willingness of solving the problem through military operations. Although the word does not suit the language of diplomacy, I don’t find a better characterization at the moment. If it is announced on the level of the President that the first stage of the war is over, and Azerbaijan is always ready to solve the problem through military operations, this can be estimated as an undisguised pressure against the international community and the mediators.
Interpreting Azerbaijan’s attitude, we can state the following: if the mediators insist on settling the conflict based upon the Madrid principles, i.e. there’s no respect for the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, resuming the military operations remains the only way for the latter to solve the problem. Because, to the best of our knowledge, those principles envisage the definition of the NKR status through a referendum. Azerbaijan naturally admits the fact with a great sorrow, perceiving it as a mechanism of legalizing the secession of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic.
Judging by all, the last visit of the Co-Chairs was aimed at mitigating the anxiety of the Azerbaijani side. As to what extent they succeeded in their efforts will be shown by the further development of the negotiation process.
“To what extent is your optimism about the retreat of Azerbaijan’s attacking policy justified, taking into consideration the fact that the Azerbaijani delegation gained the successive advantage over us by ‘thrusting in’ the anti-Armenian formulation passed by the UN into the PACE Resolution?”
“In general, I would advise or rather, ask the Armenian delegation not to overload itself and avoid initiating debates with the Azerbaijani party. I believe it would be more proper to simply state that if Azerbaijan has problems with Nagorno Karabakh, this is none of Armenia’s business, and Azerbaijan had better display its willingness by initiating a direct dialogue with Karabakh with the purpose of settling its problems.
That’s to say, the Armenian party doesn’t have initiate a debate with the Azeris on most different topics such as ecological issues, human rights etc.
Nevertheless, I think that restoring territorial integrity is the general political attitude of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, and it applies not only to Azerbaijan but also to Georgia and Moldova. This may be considered as one of the manifestations of the East-West conflicts. The Azerbaijani diplomacy has held no victory at this point because the conversation is about the principle of territorial integrity in general.
What does territorial integrity mean, and which are the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan? These are the questions that should be discussed on the legal plane. The thing is that Azerbaijan is now making claims for a territory which has never formed part of its statehood. In my opinion, the declarative statements on restoring territorial integrity should be viewed in this context.”
“There is a widespread opinion that the West, on behalf of the Council of Europe, demonstrated a mild attitude towards us by not applying any sanctions with the purpose of imposing concessions with regard to the Karabakh issue. Is it possible to have a serious approach to this viewpoint?”
“I think these are merely tricks used with the purpose of gaining some dividends in the internal political campaign. I am sincerely sorry that an issue like the Karabakh conflict becomes a subject of political speculations.
As regards the allegations that the Council of Europe had a mild attitude to Armenia, they probably mean the authorities of Armenia. And a mild or non-mild attitude towards the authorities may be displayed by the public, society and the electorate responsible for forming those authorities. If the present-day authorities have been formed by the major part of the electorate, it is necessary to respect their decision and initiate the step-by-step implementation of all the activities aimed at strengthening construction work on the state level, fostering the country's economy and increasing its military power.
That’s to say, it is necessary to make goal-oriented steps to solve the problems we are facing. And if it is impossible to solve global problems, we must be able to at least resist the challenges faced by the whole region and especially Armenia.
STRATEGY MUSTN’T CHANGE
Thus, in the framework of their regional visit Minsk Group co-Chairmen visited Stepanakert and met with NKR authorities.
Is it a regular meeting or the mediators really hope to avert the process of “blockading” the Madrid process by Azerbaijan.
Political Analyst Davit Babayan
“The visit of the co-Chairmen is of both political and protocol nature. Protocol – because the co-Chairmen regularly visit the region and every time, besides meeting with Armenian and Azerbaijani leadership they visit Artsakh. Thus in essence they prove that NKR is a conflicting party, though at the moment it doesn’t partake in the negotiation process. In this regard this visit can be considered a regular visit.
On the other hand, the recent developments make this visit very important from the political point of view.
Let’s start from the fact that Kosovo declared its independence recently and many countries did recognize this independence, which gives a new energy to the settlement of the conflict. On March 4 as we know the Azerbaijanis violated the cease-fire. After this negative event the co-Chairmen should have visited the region and discussed it with NKR President, the authorities and the government. It’s worth mentioning that the government has changed in the countries of the region, both Armenia and Karabakh have new Presidents, new Presidential elections are in store for Azerbaijan in autumn, and in this regard the regular visit of the co-Chairmen to the region a bit differs from the previous ones.
NKR President and the government have reconfirmed Artsakh’s stance regarding the peaceful settlement of the conflict and that Azerbaijan’s bellicose announcements hinder the process of the negotiations.”
“How do you estimate the fact that Azerbaijan managed to repeat its famous resolution in PACE, regarding the “liberation of the occupied territories by Azerbaijan?”
“Thus Azerbaijan is doing its best to hide it’s anti-democratic policy towards the national minorities. We all know that during the recent weeks and even months the idea of the national sovereignty is bursting among the lezgies, talishis and avars. They have already appealed to Daghistan, Russia and the whole world anticipating that the international community will somehow respond to the violation of the minorities’ rights.
It is natural that Azerbaijanis intend to gain dividends, trying to decline the attention of the international community and bring it to Armenia’s internal political problems. It is evident and we must always take it into account.”
“The leaders of the “pan-national” movement don’t even hide that their goal is to convince PACE use political sanctions against Armenia.”
“The recent developments testify to the fact that the rivalry has become sharper between the two geopolitical poles. And if at present any European or western structure or state uses political sanctions against Armenia it will definitely change the ratio of the forces in the region.
At the moment it is not beneficial for anyone especially the West to use political sanctions against Armenia, that can have impact on Armenia’s foreign policy. That is why I don’t think it can happen.
Of course it is beneficial for certain internal and foreign powers. Firstly for Azerbaijan, which can gain dividends in case of Armenia’s “pro-Russian” stance, representing itself as the champion of the western values.”
“Has Armenia’s policy regarding Karabakh changed after the “coup d'état”, or everything is the same?”
“In general the strategy of the settlement of Karabakh conflict should be the same for Armenian people. There can be some changes in terms of the tactics, but the main approach must be the same, which is - Karabakh can’t be part of Azerbaijan.
The second principle, which is not less important, is the guarantee of Artsakh’s security. In this regard, in my view nothing has changed and it cannot change because the majority of the people doesn’t question these two principles. In this case the change of government cannot have any influence on the policy regarding Karabakh.”
- LILIT POGHOSYAN
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