THE EXPERIENCED POLITICAL JUGGLER
Ready for a second bluff
The congress of the pro-opposition factions which is to be convened today, as well as the speech to be made by Levon Ter-Petrosyan should provide an answer to the question when the ex-President is going to proceed with speculating the difficulties currently faced by the country and thus resort to the tactics of “bluff” periodically.
After all, it was not the task of overcoming the situation that underlay Ter-Petrosyan’s tactics of sponsoring the pre-electoral developments, but rather, the goal of generating dissatisfaction, as this might at least ensure the rehabilitation of his own image. And Ter-Petrosyan was unable to do more than that, since a skillful speculation of the existing dissatisfaction could have disoriented only some part of society, but it wasn’t enough for being elected a president.
So, although the first stage of the skillful bluff did not ensure L. Ter-Petrosyan’s victory on February 19, the candidate did manage to develop the image of an uncompromising pro-opposition figure in the eyes of a significant part of society.
Thereafter, there began the second stage of generating bluffs, when the candidate, having 21 percent of votes was using the skillfulness of a juggler to insist that he had received 65 percent, as a matter of fact.
And this resulted in the well-known events of March 1-2, which secured the “internationalization” of the speculated bluff which, on the one hand, was advantageous to the author and on the other hand, contained a serious hazard for L. Ter-Petrosyan.
The thing is that neither the Constitutional Court appeals against the results of the February 19 elections nor the speeches of L. Ter-Petrosyan’s proponents from the tribunals of PACE and the United States convinced the international community that the opposition leader had held a victory in the February 19 elections. The incontrovertible evidence of the fact is the international observers’ well-known assessments which have recently been included in the resolution adopted by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.
According to those assessments, the international community proposed a resolution to the Armenian authorities and opposition, based on two clear-cut theses.
The first is the package of requirements addressed to the authorities. They include an independent inquiry into the March 1-2 events, release of the individuals who didn’t use violence, the elimination of the temporary restrictions on the freedom of marches and demonstrations etc.
The second package concerns the opposition. It contains a requirement to recognize the results of the February 19 elections or else, to apply to the European Court of Human Rights.
It should be noted that when the pro-Ter-Petrosyan camp came to know that the new authorities of Armenia intended to follow the letter and spirit of the PACE Resolution, i.e. to comply with the proposals within the period of 3 months, and demand that the opposition do the same, they began showing serious signs of concern.
First, they started voicing complaints in the address of the international community which demanded that the legitimacy of the new Armenian authorities be recognized. Then they passed on to the next step, i.e. declared of the intention of Ter-Petrosyan’s proponents to apply to the European Court. By this, the international community received a false confirmation of the fact that the Armenian opposition was ready to dispute not only the figures published by the Central Election Commission, but also the conclusion of an observation group representing such a rigorous body as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
A question arises as to what this step could have meant in the context of the further development of Armenia’s internal political situation. The answer is obvious. By way of using such trick, Ter-Petrosyan and his proponents “froze” the process of complying with the resolution and as a matter of fact, gained time not only for applying to the European Court but also making the next step on the political arena.
This testifies to the fact that the congress of the pro-opposition factions promises to become the third stage of the political bluff raffled by Ter-Petrosyan.
If the opposition had really been convinced of the invulnerability of the facts available to it and the arguments deriving thereof, it would have applied to the European Court right after the Constitutional Court passed its decision on March 8. As a matter of fact, it was with the purpose of not complying with the PACE requirement that the belated intention of applying to the European Court was publicized a month’s later. So, L. Ter-Petrosyan intends to continue his bluff and bring it to an end. And this means that the political juggler has already done certain calculations and is sure that he will manage to cheat the local and foreign “spectator” this time as well. What is such certainty accounted for?
First: In case of agreeing to a dialogue on any condition, Ter-Petrosyan will be deprived of the only serious political tool, i.e. the people’s dissatisfaction, without which he will be unable to continue the bluff he started several months ago. Furthermore, the absence of a dialogue and the trials of the participants of the March 1-2 events still allow him to maintain the “aureole” of a persecuted creature.
Second: The changing international-economic situation, which will inevitably lead to the increase of prices in the course of the coming months, will certainly arouse discontent among the socially vulnerable.
Third: After the presidential elections of Armenia, the international community has been making new efforts towards achieving the signature of a document on the basic principles of the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, and after the presidential elections of Azerbaijan, this will bring our country and its leadership face-to-face with serious external challenges.
- “HAYOTS ASHKARH”
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- 1219 Death of Armenian King Levon the Second (Kingdom of Cilicia).
- 1817 General Yermolov, Commander of the Caucasian forces and Governor of the Caucasus, stops in Echmiadsin on his way to a mission in Persia.
- 1869 Death of the Armenologist Victor Langlois. He translated Armenian historical sources into French under the sponsorship of Noobar Pasha.
- 1900 Death of Hovhannes Aivazovsky (seascape artist) in Feodosia (the Ukraine). He was born in 1817.
- 1916 The "France-Armenie" committee is organized in Paris. Members of the Academy and other political figures are members.
- 1917 The First Assembly of Western Armenians opens in Yerevan under the Presidency of General Andranik.
- 1919 The Publication of Constantinople's Extraordinary Military Tribunal's decision about the perpetrators of the deportations of Booyook Dere's (Constantinople's district) Armenian population.
- 1930 Creation of the Kanaker Power Station.
- 1965 Death of Hrachia Kochar (writer and public figure). He was born in 1909.
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