“EXIT POLL” AND HANDIWORK TWO DIFFERENT THINGS
- “Day. Az” has spread information, saying that, civil initiative “Alliance”, which according to Azerbaijani information sources for the last three years has been combining its observation mission with sociology, by conducting “exit polls” overseas, has decided to test their strength in Armenia, during the forthcoming February 19 presidential elections.
“Day. Az” has reportedly received this information from “Alliance” vice-Chair Gevorg Melikyan, who said that post-election “exit poll” would be held in 100 precincts of the Republic among 2300 voters. Who is Gagik Melikyan and to what extent can the results of the “exit poll” be trustworthy? Chairman of Armenian Sociological Association Gevorg Poghosyan responds our questions.
“Firstly I must say that this name doesn’t say anything to me or to anyone. And I haven’t even heard about such a sociological organization. If the conversation is about a professional “exit poll”, then I must say that it is a very tough and serious job. It requires more work than an ordinary social poll. The experience of the international practice shows that you must start the preparation of the “exit poll” several months before the voting day.
As regards Armenian Sociological Association we have already announced that we are planning to hold an “exit poll” in association with British “Populus” and for the last two and a half month we have been getting prepared for the poll. And still we are short of time.
It is really a very hard-working process. There are certain regulated mechanisms, and standards that must be taken into account. For that you must have the complete picture of the distribution of precincts, local electoral centers. To measure the distance between those holding the survey, to conduct training with them, they must have badges and documents.
Moreover, we have already submitted an application to the CEC, saying that “Populus” is planning to hold an “exit poll” in association with Public TV at this certain day at a certain precinct. We have already sent letters to the Chairs of the corresponding precinct committees, not only to inform them but also from the point of view of ethics. Not to give reasons for questions.”
“What is the number of the precincts and the participants of the post election poll conditioned by. Are there any standards?”
“Usually “exit polls” are based on the general number of the precincts. If you want to have trustworthy results you must provide a corresponding number of precincts and the participants of the poll. We have already counted with our English colleagues. The poll must be conducted in 126 precincts in Yerevan and the provinces. And they must be equally distributed around the Republic and not for example accumulated in Shirak.
Frankly the numbers mentioned in the announcement made by “Day.Az” are surprising. Because 2300 is a very small number for “exist poll”, usually 10-12, and even 20 thousand voters participate in “exit polls”. From the professional point of view it is not a trustworthy number.
- LILIT POGHOSYAN
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