SINGLE-STAGE ELECTIONS PREDICTED BY ALL SOCIOLOGISTS

The results of the public opinion polls conducted by the British “Populus” company January 21-29 came to confirm the data of the previous surveys carried out by the American “Gallup” and the Armenian “Sociometer” companies, revealing certain unfounded reservations and doubts expressed in our reality.
The British specialists conducted a more detailed survey of the chain of repeated regularities recorded during the previous polls, by posing a great number of new questions to 1500 Armenian voters. The extensive survey conducted by the British company positively differs from the previous polls in its volume, diversity of questions and certainly – in a higher degree of precision.
As mentioned by the company’s chairman Andrew Cooper on February 6, their company enjoys a high rating and has no bias or interest in Armenia. This consequently leads to the conclusion that this kind of company will never cast doubt on its international rating and reputation and hence – its financial condition because of the electoral campaign currently held in Armenia.
The results of the surveys summing up the voters’ ideas about each candidate’s real chances of ensuring the country’s security, settling the Karabakh issue, eradicating unemployment, developing the economy etc., precisely coincide with the proportion of their votes. Accordingly, the overwhelming majority of the respondents entrusted the solution to the above-mentioned complex problems to Prime Minister Serge Sargsyan.
The voters’ trust in his practical abilities is particularly high with respect to the whole complex of issues ensuring the country’s security, as they have always been of primary importance for our society.
The “Populus” survey has also revealed the shifts in the ratings of the 9 candidates participating in the current campaign. It is noteworthy that “Sociometer” company tried to solve the same problem from 1 to 2 February, a few days after the polls conducted by “Populus”. Therefore, having the data of both surveys close at hand in the middle of the campaign, let’s try to conduct a comparative analysis. Both surveys predict the same level of voters’ participation, 70-80 percent, which is quite a high rate.
The survey records, however, show a slight difference in the voters’ preferences for concrete candidates. This can be accounted for by the following factor. In his February 6 statement Andrew Cooper, Head of “Populus” company, mentioned, “for obtaining the results of this question, we subtracted from the total number of respondents those people who said that were not going to participate in the voting or didn’t know how to vote.” On these bases, “Populus” recorded that 50.7 percent of the voters were ready to cast their ballot in favor of S. Sargsyan, the undisputed leader of the electoral race.
As to “Sociometer”, its calculations are not limited to those voters who have definitely decided to participate in the February 19 elections. The company finds that the percentage of the votes to be cast in favor of S. Sargsyan has already reached 67.
According to the “Populus” poll, Arthur Baghdasaryan continues to rank as the second candidate, with a rating of 13.4 percent. The result recorded by “Sociometer” is almost the same - 13 percent. It should be noted that in the middle of the current electoral race both companies have also recorded a certain increase in the rating of Armenia’s ex-President L. Ter-Petrosyan. According to “Populus”, his rating has reached 12.6 percent, and according to “Sociometer”, it has increased to 11 percent. As to the ratings of the other presidential candidates, they are rather low, according to the results of both surveys.
It turns out that about two weeks before the voting Serge Sargsyan, one of the presidential candidates, has surpassed all his contenders to such a serious extent that even in case of resorting to purely theoretical mental trainings and bringing together the electorate of all the other contenders, it will be impossible to record fundamental changes in the current electoral struggle
And this means that some miracle should occur during the coming ten-day period to change the clear cut-ratio of forces totally ensuring the Prime Minister’s victory at the very first stage of the voting.
ARMEN TSATOURYAN

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209 days before | remove (5) | reply
SARGIS wrote:
Thank you Andrew Cooper of British 'Populous" for your results and the American 'Gallup' Poll for their results. It is becoming increasingly clear what the election results are going to be and who the next Leader of Armenia will be on the 19th of February.
We appreciate your work. This will, once again, prove that LTP doesn't stand a chance. You have dashed his hopes. Thank you for that!

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