
SERGE SARGYSAN MAINTAINS HIS 67 PERCENT RATING
- The possibility of a 2nd stage is ruled out

AHARON ADIBEKYAN, Head of “Sociometer” center, was the guest speaker of “Tesaket” (viewpoint) club yesterday. He introduced the final results of the six public opinion polls conducted by their center.
The first three public opinion polls were conducted in 2007, the next two - in January 2008, and the last – on February 1-2. The number of the participants of the six polls conducted both throughout the republic and in separate marzes (provinces) was different. There were minimum 2000, and maximum - 3200 voters participating in the survey.
What activeness is anticipated as of February 1-2? 25 percent of the respondents mentioned that they were not interested in the upcoming presidential elections. 3 percent answered that they might participate in the elections. 12 percent have not yet decided which of the candidates to vote for, 11 percent have not disclosed their intention. 45 percent have already decided who to vote for.
Head of “Sociometer” center says that in case of summing up these data it will be possible to state that 68 percent of the voters will actively participate in the elections.
What is the candidates’ rating as of the first days of February? The summary of the polls covering the whole territory of the republic shows that 1 percent of the voters will vote in favor of Artashes Geghamyan, 2 percent – in favor of Vazgen Manoukyan, 5 percent – in favor of Vahan Hovhannisyan, 11 percent –in favor of Levon Ter-Petrosyan, 13 per cent – in favor of Arthur Baghdasaryan.
The leading candidate is again Serge Sargsyan, as 67 percent of the respondents are going to cast their vote in his favor. Let’s note that according to the results of the polls conducted among the voters of the marzes last week, the Prime Minister’s rating was 67 percent again.
In comparison with the results of the polls conducted in the marzes, L. Ter-Petrosyan’s rating has sharply increased. If last week LTP had a 6 percent rating in the marzes, this number has now reached 11 percent throughout the republic. After receiving 9 percent in the marzes, Arthur Baghdasaryan has also increased his rating by 2 percent.
The results also revealed the distribution of the “determined votes” in the town of Yerevan. Thus, 61 percent of the voters mentioned that they would cast their vote in favor of Serge Sargsyan. 15 percent are going to vote in favor of L. Ter-Petrosyan, 11 percent – in favor of A. Baghdasaryan, 8 percent – in favor of V. Hovhannisyan, 3 percent – in favor of V. Manoukyan and 1 percent – in favor of A. Geghamyan.
As shown by the final results, Arthur Baghdasaryan (with a 7 percent rating) appears to be the preferred candidate among the pro-Opposition electorate. This, however, doesn’t mean that the candidate representing “Rule of Law” party will be nominated as the united candidate of the Opposition. Only 3 per cent of the pro-Opposition electorate pointed out that that A. Baghdasaryan may become a united candidate.
As regards L. Ter-Petrosyan, although 5 percent of the respondents considered him preferable, 6 percent mentioned that LTP would be nominated as the united candidate representing the Opposition. V. Manoukyan was considered preferable by 4 percent and A. Geghamyan – by 3 percent of the voters. However, in terms of being nominated as the Opposition’s united candidate, these contenders enjoy a much lower rating in comparison with A. Baghdasaryan.
Aharon Adibekyan mentioned that although these date cannot be considered final at present, “it is already possible to say definitely that the possibility of a second stage of elections is ruled out” based on such results. Because, the sociologist finds that even if the hesitant voters (currently 23 percent) orient themselves in favor of this or that candidate, the number of votes obtained will not be enough to allow for a second stage.
We wonder how much L. Ter-Petrosyan’s rating will increase in case A. Baghdasaryan joins him. A. Adibekyan believes that even if LTP receives support not only by “Rule of Law” but also by “Heritage” party, his 11 percent rating will increase by no more than 4 percent. That’s to say, “in case of others’ joining him, only a certain part of the votes will ‘unite’, and we have known this since 1998,” the speaker added.
He also noted that there are no reputable individuals among those who support the ex-President. “Who stands by LTP? Stepan Demirtchayn with a rating of 1 percent. Demrtchyan’s rating is lower in comparison with Tigran Karapetyan. There is Aram Z. Sargsyan, with his zero percent rating. Who else is there? ‘Hnchakyan’ party members? But have they ever had an authoritative opinion? There are no reputable individuals there. Besides, we figured out during the past elections that rating is not transferred from father to son. It is not transferred from brother to brother. And similarly, the rating of a party is not transferred to its leader.”
A. Adibekyan has also figured out the extent of the candidates’ negative image. L. Ter-Petrosyan, with a negative image of 38-39 percent, tops the list. A. Haroutyunyan, T. Karapetyan and A. Melikyan, each having a 17 percent negative image, are on the second horizon, followed by A. Geghamyan (6 percent) and A. Baghdasaryan (0.3 percent).
According to the speaker, 12 percent of the respondents, who mentioned that they hadn’t yet decided which candidate to vote for, “are the potential bribe-takers, who are waiting to see how much money they will receive from this or that candidates in order to decide who to vote for.”
“Sociometer” is to conduct its next polls on February 8-9; the results, however, will not be publicized. Law doesn’t allow it. The publication of the results of social polls 10 days before the voting is prohibited.”
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