WHO WILL BENEFIT FROM TER-PETROSYAN’S NOMINATION?

First of all the authority in power

There is a “good” tradition in our reality to discuss or rather speculate prior to each presidential election the issue whether or not ex-President Levon Ter-Petrosyan will be run for presidency. And such tradition constitutes a component of the political protocol.
This can, somehow, be understood and even “approached with understanding” from the point of view of the personal interests of the ex-President’s political proponents. After all, what does the Armenian pan-National Movement currently have, apart from the ex-President’s persistent silence kept in the political records?
However, the issue whether or nor Levon will run for Presidency is becoming discussed more and more frequently, involving a broad circle of political figures having different attitudes towards the ex-President. Some people use it for self-advertisement purposes, trying to attract public attention by their “genius” predictions, whereas others’ Levon-oriented mental trainings are more and more making a transition from the sphere of rational judgments towards the expectations of a “new mesea”.
Of course, this is also a political technique, since meseanism has always been characteristic to ordinary people’s irrational perceptions. And today their speculation is becoming an illusory opportunity of “trying one’s luck” and fishing in troubled waters.
To keep the issue of Mr. Ter-Petrosyan’s running for presidency in the sphere of Kant’s “Sober reasoning” it is necessary to answer two principal questions.
First: What real does Mr. Ter-Petrosyan have in case running for Presidency in 2008?
Second: Which of the real pretenders will win and which of them will suffer losses, should the ex-President join their struggle?
It is the in-depth discussion of these issues that brings Ter-Petrosyan’s myth from Heaven to Earth. And it is not absolutely accidental that today they are persistently left out by the ex-President’s proponents as well as other political figures who invent tales around his image,.
This Damocle’s sword bearing the image of Ter-Petrosyan which, in some people’s imagination, threatens the authorities is made of ordinary cardboard. In case of running for Presidency L. Ter-Petrosyan will suffer a crucial defeat, receiving no more than 3 per cent of votes. Only his closest proponents and the ex-officials, who held posts under the rule of the Armenian pan-National Movement, will vote in his favor. All the rest of the pro-Opposition activists, no matter how dissatisfied with the present-day authorities, will not, under any circumstances, consider L. Ter-Petrosyan as their alternative.
In this respect, we believe it is the authority in power that is more interested in L. Ter-Petrosyan’s running for presidency. “Who is guilty?” and “What to do” – while having to give an answer to these two eternal questions during an electoral campaign, it is extremely important to find an appropriate target in order to exhaust the protestant electorate’s negative energy addressed to any authority. Therefore, should L. Ter-Petrosyan appear on the arena of a political campaign in 2008, the present-day authorities will have more powerful advocacy tools to which they can easily direct the electorate’s negative energy. After all, the roots of all the disadvantages existing now are buried in the times when L. Ter-Petrosyan was in power, whereas the achievements of the past 10 years are obvious.
Thus, in case the current political speculations around the issue of L. Ter-Petrosyan’s running for presidency come under logical scrutiny and are transferred to the domain of the 2008 electoral campaign, there will be only one conclusion possible. In case of running for Presidency, the former President will not only suffer a crucial defeat, but will also contribute with his presence to the victory of the pro-Governmental candidate.
ARMEN TSATOURYAN

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Headlines for July 28, 2007

WHO WILL BENEFIT FROM TER-PETROSYAN’S NOMINATION?
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