DEFEAT TECHNOLOGY

Struggle for the Second Position

Why does each of the Opposition leaders currently propose his and only his candidacy for the Presidential elections? We believe there is only one “substantiation” for such parade of self-nominations – to prove that he himself is able to throw the gauntlet to Serge Sargsyan – the candidate representing the ruling authority. This is the pivotal idea of those submitting political claims successively during the recent period. They include Vazgen Manoukyan, Aram Karapetyan and other pretenders.
If, for a moment, we forget about or set aside the desire of opposing to the pro-Government candidate and try to figure out what else the activists engaged hastily in self-nomination want, we will find ourselves in perfect uncertainty. Moreover, it turns out that the Opposition activists are beginning the Presidential campaign with a propaganda conducted in favor of the pro-Government candidate. Because, each of those advancing his own candidacy willingly appears a step below the pro-Government candidate – on the level of a pretender.
Therefore, the pretenders appearing on the arena are simple-minded enough to behave like boxers or they are just “trying their luck” because occupying the second position in “competitions” on the Presidential level is not bad result as it is.
Setting aside the beginner’s hypothesis, which is not a proper definition, at least inasmuch as Vazgen Manoukyan is concerned, we will obtain the true motive of the present-day self-nominations of the presidential candidates – a desire for “trying their luck” and occupying the vacant seat of the Opposition leader.
Indeed, if we closely analyze the statements made by the majority of the activists who have already nominated themselves (perhaps with the exception of the “exotic” Tigran Karapetyan), we will immediately record that the true struggle is for the honorable second position, at least for the time being.
Judge yourselves: Arthur Baghdasaryans says that he is the Opposition leader, i.e. the activist pretending to throw the gauntlet to the pro-Government candidate, because the largest number of votes among the pro-Opposition factions belongs to the “Rule of Law” leader. Aram Karapetyan finds a solid “advocate” like the “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” newspaper, while Vazgen Manoukyan has resorted the tactics of “missing the competitions”, a widespread device in sport. Realizing well that the Opposition would suffer a defeat in the National Assembly elections and his party would be unable to overcome the 5 per cent barrier, he missed the Parliamentary elections and, then, having struck the attitude of a highly-experienced veteran he desires to persuade everybody that should such an “experienced ace” stand for election next time, the situation will change drastically.
The whole logic of the self-nominations of the Opposition activists contains in its basis the principal element of inferiority which makes the nomination of one’s own candidacy and especially the united candidate dependent upon the existence of the pro-Government candidate – the tactical target. This means that the “Serge Sargsyan or x” formula lies from the outset upon the basis of the emerging Presidential campaign and as a result such methodology of clarifying the Opposition candidate or candidates immediately gives rise to 3 questionable issues instead of 1.
First, who will rank as the first among the pretenders?
Second, how does that particular “stranger” manage to ensure the Opposition’s unity, when each of its leaders desires to be the first?
Third, how will such unity be manifested as a political alternative to the ruling authority?
There are two principal options proposed for the solution of this trinomial formula:
first, achieving a gentlemen’s agreement around the “united candidate” and consolidating in pursuance of the 1996 pattern (Vazgen Manoukyan)
second, struggling for the second position and consolidating around the pro-Opposition activists entering the second stage, having improved the 2003 pattern (Aram Karapetyan).
It is clear that 1996 is behind, and it is impossible to consolidate factions with different foreign policy orientations in addition to their leaders. Actually, it turns out again that the current self nominations have a goal to clarify the former rather than the latter position.
And does the Opposition have potentials to transfer the elections at least to the second stage, considering that the whole logic of the current struggle is built on the principle of the contest among those who pretend on throwing the gauntlet to the pro-Government candidate, i.e. dividing the electorate into parts. The answer is definite; before the pretenders clarify which of them will throw the gauntlet to the authority at the second stage, the elections will be over, because the struggle for the Opposition front is a struggle for the second position only.
If no miracle occurs in Armenia during the nearest months and no new - alternative systems of values, structure and individuals develops, the primitive mode of action, currently pursued by the pro-Opposition leaders, will guarantee their total failure, since in politics the choice of personalized targets is definitely a technology of defeat, or rather, a struggle among those who pretend on the second position.
ARMEN TSATOURYAN

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