COUNTERBALANCE OR CONSENT?
- The Parliamentary Elections and the Karabakh Issue
Today we hear opinions that for the purpose of confronting external pressures, a national-patriotic, pro-Armenian opposition ready to “confront” the authorities’ “unjustified concessions” should have been formed as a result of the Parliamentary elections. And because it doesn’t exist in the present-day Parliament and, instead, the opposition is represented by two pro-Western factions, it follows that a “consolidated authority” is a real target for external pressures.
Such reasoning could be considered quite appropriate if the well-known regularity were not so conspicuous behind the formal logic. It doesn’t consist in the reasoning proper, but rather in the vulnerability of its staring condition – the fundamental error or, as characterized in Latin “error fundamnetalis”.
There may be an impression that the “consolidated authority” is hesitant about the Karabakh issue in a specific manner, therefore it may make undue concessions.
Whereas, the problem is that the authority itself is national-patriotic or pro-Armenian. Therefore, the fact of its being strong and “consolidated” is a decisive condition of avoiding unjustified concessions. As to the firmness of its Parliamentary counterbalance, which night allegedly allow the authority to become more flexible, we don’t share the opinion of Mr. Hmayak Hovhannisyan that the members of, for example, “Heritage” party, leader Raffi Hovhannisyan, “are inclined to agree with the international force centers with regard to the Karabakh issue,” and the latter, in turn, “are more inclined to meet half-way Azerbaijan’s exaggerated ambitions”.
Moreover, should we picture to ourselves for a moment that this statement is true and forget the fact that ARF-Dashnaktoutyun has strengthened its positions in the newly-elected National Assembly will any concessions be possible for the authority preparing for Presidential elections right after the elections to the Parliament? It isn’t as if after the talks expected during the coming months the Presidential campaign is to start in Armenia.
Therefore, even if no serious counterbalance is found in the Parliament, the extra-Parliamentary opposition may, nonetheless, play such a role prior to the Presidential elections. And to think that the authority and its candidate may make such concessions, inconsistent with the national interests, means to admit that the latter are simply going to commit suicide.
Therefore, the task of “taking advantage of the opportunity to maneuver at the expense of internal political ‘threats’ ” is nothing more than a result of maintaining the mentality that developed under the rule of L. Ter-Petrosyan. The representation of the pro-Western factions in Parliament at present is not absolutely the overturned variant of the “yielding authority - patriotic opposition” formula.
Those who are ready to applaud the authorities’ yielding policy – something that is only theoretically possible, we mean the Armenian pan-National Movement and its updated satellite, i.e. “Impeachment” union, obtained no seats in Parliament; as to “Heritage” and “Rule of Law”, they have such a limited representation, that it is hardly possible to anticipate that they will make serious steps with regard to the Karabakh issue. Therefore, Armenia currently doesn’t have the consolidated political pole which may act as a supporter of Azerbaijan’s exaggerated ambitions.
Therefore, the weakening of Armenia’s positions during the upcoming Karabakh settlement talks is possible not due to the absence of a strong patriotic opposition but rather due to the prolongation of the current political disputes around the results of May 12 elections and their further consideration in the Constitutional Court. In that case, “the international observers’ suspiciously favorable response to our elections” may, in their final conclusions, be substituted by the assessments the Opposition may publicize in the Constitutional Court.
But, is it possible for such a pessimistic scenario to mitigate the authorities’ attitudes and push the Armenian side to unilateral concessions? We don’t think it is, because the existing internal political consensus with regard to the Karabakh issue is based on the primary task of ensuring the national security of the two Armenian states and the people living there, and not on the relationship between the authority and the opposition.
The Karabakh settlement process has given rise to a situation, in which even serious mutual concession will be rejected by Azerbaijan; as to unilateral concessions, they are simply ruled out, considering the nature of the authorities in power and the prospect of the upcoming Parliamentary elections.
Thus, the challenges sketched on the international arena following the Parliamentary elections create pre-requisites necessary for the establishing an atmosphere of national consent and regulations with regard to the Karabakh issue and not internal political counterbalances.
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