PRECEDENT OF KOSOVO AND KARABAKH CONFLICT
Yesterday, December 10 was the deadline of the negotiations about the situation in Kosovo. The special group, which includes representatives of the USA, Russia and the EU proved unsuccessful in bringing the sides of the conflict to mutual consensus. The stances of both Beograd and Pristina on the matter are diametrically different, and the international mediators are pessimistic about coming to a multilateral peace agreement in the observable future.
The international interest to the Kosovo issue is caused not only by Kosovo's chances to achieve independence, but also the issue's opportunity of becoming a precedent in international legal practice. The present situation is a paradox: the United States, which stand for Kosovo's independence, are against considering the issue a precedent of international law, and Russia, which is against Kosovo's independence, presses that the issue must be considered a precedent.
President of Kosovo Fatmir Seydiou stated that it is impossible to make two million people to change their minds and make them obey a government, with which they have been ever in conflict. It is hard to disagree with this opinion, as one nation cannot live under the rule of another nation. The history shows that subjection of one nation by another always ended up in armed conflicts. Nevertheless, the European politicians are aware that the precedent of Kosovo may cause a chain reaction and shake the foundations of a number of European states. Basques and Catalonians in Spain, Corsicans in France, Irishmen and Scotsmen in Britain - all of them may start fighting for independence under certain circumstances.
The international mediation group had given four months the governments of Beograd and Pristina to come to agreement. Today it became clear that the negotiations were no success. Now the USA and the EU have to decide whether they are to give four more months to Beograd and Pristina or implement the resolution suggested by Marti Ahtisaari. According to this plan, Kosovo is to be recognized as and independent state de-facto, and remain a part of Serbia de-jure. Kosovo is to be authorized to realize its won inner and foreign policy, irrespective of the policy of Beograd. Such kind of solution, implying the recognition of Kosovo's independence without discussing the matter at UN Security Council, may become a precedent for Russia to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and for Turkey to recognize the independence of North Cyprus, etc.
Such kind of development of events is the notion preventing the West from making a final decision on Kosovo. In case Ahtisaari's plan is adopted, there will be no way of blaming Russia, or any other states, for accepting the independence of certain unrecognized states and establishing diplomatic relations with them. Armenia is interested in this way of settling the Kosovo issue, as in this case the precedent of Kosovo shall become applicable to Karabakh conflict.
- By A. Manvelian, translated by A.M.
PRECEDENT OF KOSOVO AND KARABAKH CONFLICT
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