LEVON TER-PETROSIAN'S RETURN AND THE NEW RULES OF THE GAME
There is no need to give proofs that the return of the first president of Armenia will change the political developments in Armenia. Though the leading Republican Party tries to show that nothing has changed, in reality many things have changed. First, the authorities get a serious rival, who can mobilize political, financial and human resources to dictate new rules of the game.
It's also evident that Levon Ter-Petrosian will surely dictate the new rules, as the acting style of the authorities, as well as the opposition is well studied. Moreover, as time showed the latter cannot propose a new thing in the political struggle.
It's clear that the entrance of the first president into the political field adds a new intrigue, and instead of the boring presidential elections, where the victory of the present-day prime minister was beyond any doubt, a new period of developments are coming instead.
In this period, everybody look at the first president's side, every time waiting for a new step by him and the authorities' response.
I have already had an opportunity to mention that the authorities only contribute to the new developments around Levon Ter-Petrosian and consequently, display of new interests of the population.
The first evidence of the authorities' improvident policy was the incident of October 23, when the police arrested some of the partisans of Levon Ter-Petrosian.
The second mistake was the responses of TVs to October 26 mass meeting in Azatutyun Square.
Of course, it's an evident "secret" that all the Armenian TVs are controlled by the authorities. Moreover, this situation is advantageous to the first president and his partisans.
The speech of the first president at Azatutyun Square was not launched by any TV. Instead of it, the commentators considered it necessary to criticize it.
It's clear that to a ordinary televiewer it remained unclear what Levon Ter-Petrosian had told. We should not forget that the preliminary duty of a mass media is providing of trustworthy information.
By not launching or presenting the speech of the first president objectively, those companies first of all have violated their televiewers' rights.
Similar informational "hunger" will give an opportunity to the partisans of Levon Ter-Petrosian to anticipate a bigger crowd, what in its turn will give an opportunity to the first president to continue the composition of the political platform adding the number of its supporters and co-thinkers.
It's clear that not all the gathered at Azatutyun Square support Levon Ter-Petrosian, but many are interested in what he says.
Therefore, we can conclude that the authorities with their improvident policy and controlled television companies contribute to the increase of the number of Levon Ter-Petrosian's supporters. What did Ter-Petrosian say
The whole speech of the first president you can read in azg.am website, therefore we will not refer to it in detail. However, we want to mention that it's really a rather lettered and well-formed speech, where the created political situation in the country is presented close to objectivity.
However, being acquainted with the speech and remembering every time that its author is the first president of Armenia, we understand that criticizing the present-day authorities he might also speak of his portion of blame.
We should not forget that in the first part of 1990s Armenia was considered as an islet of democracy in the South Caucasus and that the name of the founder and the grave-digger of that islet is Levon Ter-Petrosian. Consequently, it would be better if the first president started his long-breathed speech with acceptance of his own mistakes of his government years. Self-criticism - this is what many people expected from Levon Ter-Petrosian.
Nevertheless, we heard only a criticism addressed to the present-day authorities.
We should not forget that the democracy in Armenia died under the wheels of tanks that were brought to the streets of Yerevan after the presidential elections of 1996.
By the way, did Levon Ter-Petrosian apologize to Vasgen Manukian during the last meeting for taking away his victory in 1996?
Anyway, after the political part of the speech the first president referred to the created economic situation in the country. We should say that this is the weakest part of his speech. Levon Ter-Petrosian never strikes attention with his deep economic knowledge; maybe it is the reason of serious contradictions and mistakes in the economic part of his speech. The first president finishes this part of his speech with the criticism of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, as, according to him, they are not objective in estimating the created economic situation in Armenia. Reference to October 27 incidents was probably a wrong calculated step, as the political rivals hurried to make use of it blaming him for needless speculation.
The first president did not present a new position on NKR issue; he only read his previous viewpoints on the settlement of the issue. New political situation in Armenia
Levon Ter-Petrosian's return to a political sphere should be estimated as a positive step. At last, a new figure appeared to whom the authorities cannot apply their previous methods. Anyway, a question is raised in this situation - can the present-day authorities participate in a political game, where brains and not muscles are important. Under what rules this game will develop; it is hard to predict today, but it is clear that in this situation Levon Ter-Petrosian has a good chance of increasing his political rating and becoming the main rival of the candidates in the coming presidential elections.
Anyway, the struggle developing between the present-day and previous authorities may give a good chance for a so-called third power to enter the political field.
Eventually, it's evident that in the struggle between the past and present, a thick crowd of the population wants to chose the future. But who is that future? The answer of this question costs a power. It means that the political power, which tries to be an alternative to the present and past, will have an opportunity to come to power.
We should mention that the factor of the third power has always been urgent in Armenia, but it has never been as close to reality as now.
The created situation can use equally both Vazgen Manukian and ARF. The latter has already started its campaign trying to persuade their co-thinkers that it is the third power and that coming to power it can take a serious turning in the development process of the country. We should mention that ARF chances of becoming a third power are bigger than Vazgen Manukian's. ARF is more organized and has serious financial and political resources.
Therefore, Levon Ter-Petrosian's return is rather profitable to ARF, as it wants the main target of the opposition formed around the first president to be the Republican party and the authorities.
Of course, all of these are only predictions and it's very hard to speak of the real developments, but one thing is evident that Levon Ter-Petrosian's return provides an interesting period of political developments in Armenia, at least for the journalists.
- By Armen Manvelian, translated by L.H.
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