OTTO FON BISMARCK: IT'S POSSIBLE TO POSTPONE A WAR, BUT NOT AVOID IT
Turkish invasion of North Iraq is less possible, according to world leading analytical centers. The reason is the created situation in the region. In case of invasion, Turks would have serious problems not only inside of Iraq, as not only Iraqi but also Turkey's Kurds would act against the Turkish army - and fight on two fronts is hard.
It's worth to mention that in recent years a Kurdish regular army is being formed by active interference of American and Israeli instructors of Kurdish autonomy of Iraq.
It's a new phenomenon in the region, and Turkish army is not used to fight with a regular army, as in recent decades it collided only with small partisan detachments.
Besides, Ankara acts under pressure of Washington and Brussels, and in case of invasion it might finally corrupt the strained relations with the USA, and the negotiation process with the EU would be canceled.
It's clear that the invasion is not advantageous to Iraq, too, as their inner problems would be doubled with the foreign one, which would finally corrupt that country. Turkey would also suffer from Iraq's corruption, as it would come across with a fact of creation of an independent Kurdish state with its consequences.
Before Iraqi second war, Turkey was regarded as the main military ally of the USA in the region. Middle East and Persian Gulf have always been in the framework of US interests. With this is explained Turkey-USA military cooperation, also the presence of figures and analysts in the US Defense Ministry who support Turkey; they always attached a great importance to the military significance of Turkey before the Iraqi second war. According to well-known Pentagon analyst Richard Parley's plan, the USA-British-Turkish joint army would act for the invasion of northern part of Iraq. According to it, Turkish armed forces would take control of about 55 square meter of territory. With the northern Kurdish-populated regions Turkey would took control of oil-rich cities Mosul and Kirkuk. The official Turkey would be given the right to exploit the oil-wells for a limitless time. The oil resources that flew to Jeyhan would also enter into possession of Turkey. But all these programs and plans advantageous for Turkey weren't carried out, as Turkish parliament voted against using the country's territory for the American invasion. Similar decision that didn't let the USA open the northern front seemed to corrupt finally the Turkish-American military cooperation. Nevertheless, time showed that in spite of everything, the USA continues to depend on Turkish military bases for providing own armed forces with food and ammunition.
It also showed that the USA should find an alternative in the region. That is the reason of Washington's interest in Iraqi Kurdish autonomy and Kurdish issue in general. The Kurdish mine
The Kurdish issue is a slowly acting mine for the Turkish state. To this longstanding truth we can only add that the hand of the clock seems to go faster threatening to blow up not only Turkey, but also the whole region.
It's clear that official Ankara cannot wait for the intensification of the Kurdish movement, but, from the other side, its operations are restricted by the assumed obligations to EU and USA.
Turkish media blames the USA and well-known program "Big Middle East" for aggravating the Kurdish issue. According to Turkish analysts, the program aims at creating a Kurdish state faithful to Washington in the center of Middle East. Until very recently Ankara didn't even except the existence of the Kurdish issue in its country. They considered Kurds as mountainous Turks and according to Turks, their issues were possible to settle only by economic reforms. Many analysts explained Turkish desire to become EU member as means of recovering country's corrupting economy and avoiding separatist movements. Anyhow, it's clear that it's impossible to solve the Kurdish issue by economic reforms. The idea of creating independent state has already distinctly formed among Kurds, which is the only condition of providing the physical existence of the Kurdish ethnic element. Naturally, Kurds are aware of the Turkish version of "settlement" of the Armenian issue, which like Damocle's sword hangs over the Kurdish population of Turkey as well. We should not exclude the possibility of a new genocide by Ankara in case of reinforcement of the Kurdish movement and their natural desire to separate from Turkey. Kurdish autonomy and the region
Creation of the Kurdish autonomy in Iraq inspired the Kurds of the neighboring countries and mainly Kurds of Turkey. This process changed the role of the Kurdish factor in the region. Actually, the Iraqi Kurds control the three north-eastern states (Erbil, Suleimanie, Dahuq) of the country. According to Kurdish sources here live 4,5 mln Kurds, that is 85 percent of the local population. The most influential parties of the Iraqi Kurdistan are Kurdistan Patriotic Union of Jalal Talabani and Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Masud Barzani. If the first controls the main eastern part neighboring mainly Iran, the second controls the northern parts adjacent to Turkey. Before the parliamentary elections of Iraq the two parties came to compromise on joint participation in the elections, and it provided 25 percent in the parliament.
Turkish side is also nervous about the fact that during the parliamentary elections Kurds actually held a referendum as well and the majority of the three states voted for the independence. Though the present authorities of the Kurdish autonomy and the political parties announce that they have no issue of creating a Kurdish independent state on the agenda, anyhow it's clear that it's only a matter of time. USA and the Kurdish issue
It's not a secret that Washington is looking for an alternative in the region instead of Turkey that gets out of White House's control. The White House and especially the Pentagon needs a new colleague, which will easily come to compromise and will not suffer from a Turkish syndrome of fancying itself as a superpower in the region. In this sense, Kurdish factor is observed as an alternative. Located in the central part of Middle East the geographical position of Kurds is interesting for the US military bases, which can be allocated there after leaving Iraq. The Iraqi Kurds consider Americans as liberators from the regime of Hussein, and are ready to assist Washington in any case, in order its military presence continue as much as possible. This is the reason why George Bush received the leader of Kurdistan Masud Barzani several years ago.This unprecedented meeting showed the role of the Kurdish factor in the US policy of the region.
It's worth to mention that this cooperation is also advantageous to the main ally of the USA - Israel. Being surrounded by enemy Arabic states, Israel does everything for the creation of a Kurdish state. It means that a situation is created in the region, where Kurds enjoy the assistance of the main allies of Turkey - the USA and Israel. The refusal of the cooperation of these two countries (USA and Israel) means a serious change in Turkish foreign policy, a step that Turkey is not ready to do at present.
Today it's clear that the Kurdish issue has changed from inner issue into an international one and in the "settlement" are involved EU, USA and other international structures.
It means that a situation is created, where official Ankara on the one hand accepts the availability of the Kurdish issue and necessity of its settlement, on the other hand it understands that the movement is separatist and it cannot be solved only by democratic reforms or even by armed way. In addition, Turks are not ready for compromises.
At the end, we can add that the strengthening of the role of Kurds in the region should become a serious subject of Armenian political and analytical centers' studies, as it's already clear today that establishment of Armenian-Kurdish relations, even if at not official level, is already an issue of agenda.
- By Armen Manvelian, translated by L.H.
OTTO FON BISMARCK: IT'S POSSIBLE TO POSTPONE A WAR, BUT NOT AVOID IT
By Armen Manvelian, translated by L.H.Turkish invasion of North Iraq is less possible, according to world leading analytical centers. The reason is the created situation in the region. In case of invasion, Turks would have serious problems ...
OTTO FON BISMARCK: IT'S POSSIBLE TO POSTPONE A WAR, BUT NOT AVOID IT
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- 1781 Treaty of Reconciliation signed between King Heraklion the Second of Georgia and Yerevan's khan.
- 1808 Major-general Nebolsin occupies Nakhichevan.
- 1864 The "Haykakan Ashkharh" periodical is published by Khoren Stepanyan in Tbilissi.
- 1871 Birth of Alexander Spandiaryan (composer). He died in 1928.
- 1877 The border areas of Ghars are reorganized and split up as the districts of Kars, Ardahan, Karzvan, and Olti.
- 1881 Opening of Yerevan's Teacher's College.
- 1899 Death of the political figure, Serob Aghbyur (Serob Vardanyan).
- 1901 The battle of the Monastery of the Apostles in Western Armenia. Andranik's detachment fought off attacks by Turkish army units.
- 1911 Birth of writer Henri Troyat.
- 1928 The second State Drama Theatre of Armenia opens in Leninakan.
- 1930 The Council of People's Commissars renames the Institute of Science and Art of the Armenian SSR to the Institute of Sciences.
- 1998 The Minsk Group prepares a proposal for the comprehensive settlement of the Artsakh conflict. Artsakh and Armenia accept this as a basis for negotiations. Azerbaijan rejects them and asserts its preconditions for the negotiations.
- 1999 The OSCE Istanbul Summit urges trilateral negotiations in the Artsakh crisis and refuses to reaffirm the language of the 1996 Lisbon summits non-binding statement by the Chairman of that conference.
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