ARMENIANOW: "THEY AIM TO ISOLATE ARMENIA"
The Armenian Assembly of America would like to call your attention to the following news analysis by Jirair Haratunian, a member of the Assembly's Board of Trustees, entitled "They Aim To Isolate Armenia." Haratunian's column was published today by ArmeniaNow internet journal and is also available at the following link: http://www.armenianow.com/?action=viewArticle&AID=2413
Earlier this month, the Assembly and ArmeniaNow announced a new partnership intended to reach Armenia and the Diaspora with news of the Assembly's advocacy work in the U.S and matters of general interest from Armenia. The partnership is made possible through an Assembly grant to ArmeniaNow.
Every other day, it seems, the president of Azerbaijan warns that if peace negotiations fail he will use military force to retake Nagorno Karabakh. He declares that Azerbaijan's oil revenues will enable his military to become so powerful that victory will be inevitable. He also boasts that he will exploit Azerbaijan's economic success to isolate and render Armenia useless. This hysterical rhetoric has been repeated again and again at home and abroad.
Unfortunately Aliyev's dangerous visions gained some currency when the Caspian oil pipeline to Turkey, via Georgia, was constructed with strong American support. The pipeline deliberately circumvented Armenia and avoided passage through Russia. When the Armenian Assembly of America challenged Washington's endorsement of this project, the White House replied that its policy was to encourage multiple pipelines to distribute Caspian oil, not just the one. But in reality that was untrue. It was obvious that Washington's policy was to loosen Russia's influence in the South Caucasus and to lure Georgia and Azerbaijan away from Moscow.
From Baku's perspective the door was now wide open to try to exclude Armenia from other regional development projects. Its next best opportunity was the proposal to construct a new regional rail line from Kars to Baku, through Georgia, again circumventing Armenia. The Turkish blockade had shut down the existing rail line that transited Armenia. To forestall this project, Yerevan offered to reopen that line and even pledged it would permit it to function without Armenia's participation. The offer was promptly rejected by Turkey.
This time the Armenian Assembly moved quickly and appealed to Congress to prevent any possibility of American support or financial assistance to the new rail line project. Important Members of Congress criticized Baku, Ankara, and Tbilisi for initiating a project whose clear intention was to exclude and isolate Armenia. With the full support of the Armenian-American community, legislation prohibiting U.S. support for the project was enacted into law. The Turkish, Georgian, Azeri axis was stung by this action, but they still persist to build their new rail line. Baku has offered to loan Georgia the funds to cover that nation's share of construction costs. Will the rail line be built? Perhaps, but without financing from the U.S. or Western Europe.
The lesson for Armenia, the Armenia Assembly, and all other political diaspora forces in the United States and Europe is clear. Any effort that seeks to exclude Armenia from full participation in regional development programs must be opposed.
For its part, the Republic of Armenia has largely checkmated Baku's ambition to isolate Armenia by linking Yerevan to all relevant international and regional organizations. Armenia remains in full membership of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation. It maintains a strategic bilateral relationship with Russia and other post Soviet republics through the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Yerevan has developed a strong set of connections with NATO through the Partnership for Peace program, and is an active participant in all the bodies of the United Nations Organization. It has membership in the World Trade Organization, the Organization for the Security and Co-operation in Europe, OSCE, and is a participant in the sessions of the European Parliament. These are strong antidotes to Baku's and Ankara's isolationist machinations.
In addition, despite the twin blockades of Turkey and Azerbaijan, the Armenian economy is growing annually at a double digit rate. The London newspaper The Economist predicts Armenia's growth rate at 10 percent next year. Also, Washington has named Armenia as one of the early recipients of the Millennium Challenge Corporation grants program, which envisions the investment of $235 million to upgrade roads, water sources and irrigation resources throughout rural Armenia.
There is ample reason to be optimistic about Armenia's future. Certainly serious internal problems persist. As in other developing nations, corruption, political malfeasance, and social and economic inequality remain. But we must remember that Armenia is still in a transitional stage. It is emerging from long years of a command economy managed from Moscow, and has inherited a political environment where one party rule brooked no competition or dissent. Transition to a fully democratic state and a healthy market economy takes years and requires a large measure of creative ingenuity, coupled with patience.
At the same time, external dangers remain on the horizon. Turkey and Azerbaijan are implacably hostile towards Armenia. Nagorno Karabakh remains a frozen conflict with hopes, but little evidence of early resolution. Armenia's immediate neighborhood is plagued with severe problems. Turkey is confronted with internal political and social disputes where secularists are facing a resurgence of Islamism. It faces a persistent Kurdish movement struggling for political and human rights, and in neighboring Iraq an emerging Kurdish political entity is gaining strength.
Despite all its bravado and banging the drums of war, Azerbaijan remains a corrupt, unstable, and undemocratic nation that is vulnerable to internal disorder. Georgia is burdened with separatist regions that resist return to Georgian rule. Despite its Rose Revolution and active support from the United States, Georgia is at odds with its northern neighbor Russia, a problem that undermines its internal security. Finally, Armenia's southern neighbor Iran, faces a severe controversy with the United States and western Europe because of its nuclear ambitions and its clandestine support of insurgencies in the Middle East. In the end, Armenia is destined to live in this dangerous and hostile neighborhood, but in comparison with its neighbors, Armenia emerges as the most stable state in the region.
With its growing economy and social stability, Armenia has earned a large measure of self confidence in its fifteen years of independence. However, this progress needs to be nurtured and supported at home and abroad. Armenia is fortunate to have the support of a far flung Armenian diaspora. In particular, Armenia can rely on the large and influential Armenian communities in the three centers of power most essential to its well being: Russia, Western Europe, particularly in France, and the United States. As for the Armenian Assembly, it will employ its nationwide membership, its 35 years of political experience, and its professional staff to ensure the continued United States support and assistance for a democratic Armenia that is secure from external hostility and holds the promise of a bright future for its citizens. Armenian Assembly of America
- A news analysis by Jirair Haratunian
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A news analysis by Jirair HaratunianThe Armenian Assembly of America would like to call your attention to the following news analysis by Jirair Haratunian, a member of the Assembly's Board of Trustees, entitled "They Aim To Isolate Armenia." ...
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