Published since 07.2002
Published on May 16, 2008
WHAT NEXT FOR NKR?: 14 YEARS AFTER CEASE FIRE, NEGOTIATIONS GO ON
- May 12 marked the 14th anniversary of the truce in the Azerbaijan-Karabakh conflict zone. Heavy military defeats in 1993-1994 had forced Azerbaijan to accept Russia’s initiative of truce offered on May 5, 1994 in the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek. Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia signed a protocol that went down in the history of the Karabakh conflict settlement as the Bishkek protocol. A document called “Agreement on the Order of Implementation of the Protocol of February 18, 1994” that envisaged the disengagement of Karabakh and Azerbaijani troops, creation of a buffer zone between the parties and introduction of peacekeeping forces was also prepared. The document was signed by the defense ministers of Russia and Armenia, Pavel Grachyov and Serzh Sargsyan, and Commander of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Defense Army Samvel Babayan. (Azerbaijan’s Defense Minister Mamedraffi Mamedov did not sign the document – he was promptly recalled to Baku. Despite this a lasting truce was established in the conflict zone). But the ceasefire regime has not yet transformed into a political decision on a comprehensive settlement. The truce during all these 14 years has been maintained mainly due to the current balance of forces. Unlike other conflicts in the post-Soviet territory, contacts on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between the two sides have now been resumed, follwoing the February presidential election and change of administration in Armenia. On May 6, in Strasbourg, the cochairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group organized a meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers, Eduard Nalbandyan and Elmar Mamedyarov. Their first meeting was of a get-acquainted nature but targeted the preparation of a meeting between the two countries’ presidents – Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia and Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan. Both considered the possibility of the meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia, in early June. A document entitled “Fair and Balanced Basic Principles of a Peaceful Settlement” was submitted to the two countries’ foreign ministers last November. The leaders of the conflicting sides have not publicized the principles of this document to an extent that would make it possible to build concrete assumptions. These principles may imply different variations on the common negotiating axis connecting the two opposed poles – the right of nations to self-determination and the principle of a state’s territorial integrity. In the past several years the discussion of the Karabakh problem was accompanied largely with negotiations over the fate of territories adjacent to the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Republic (NKAR) that are currently controlled by the NKR defense army. The impression was that the NKR status had been coordinated in general features and that it was based on the right of nations to self-determination. Indirectly in favor of this were the statements of the OSCE Minsk Group cochairmen in which Nagorno-Karabakh was never identified with “adjacent lands” in regards to which the point on “territorial integrity” was applicable. In the statements of separate senior officials representing the mediating countries Nagorno-Karabakh figured as quite a full political entity and was not connected with other disputed territories in the post-Soviet space. The peculiarity of Nagorno-Karabakh as a real player of regional policies thus appeared in the form of a kind of synthesis of two theses: a) the right of nations to self-determination applicable to the NKR (within the borders of the former NKAR, Lachin region (corridor) and at best the former Shahumyan region and former Kelbajar region); b) the state’s territorial integrity – applicable to the adjacent lands. A prospect of Nagorno-Karabakh’s political independence in exchange for territories controlled by the NKR Defense Army began to be voiced in 2001-2003 (Paris, Key West), which became a matter of controversy for the Armenian public. However, beginning in 2004-2005 (after Ilham Aliyev came to power in Azerbaijan), a turn in this tack began and the status of Nagorno-Karabakh’s status again became hostage to “new variations.” In the same year, 2005, the region was visited by the International Conflict Prevention Group which voiced the main vector of approaches to the first stage of settlement: “The Armenian side must immediately withdraw from territories of Azerbaijan it controls and suspend projects being implemented in occupied areas. Seven occupied Azerbaijani regions are to be vacated first, refugees should return and only then will it become possible to speak about Nagorno-Karabakh’s status that can be determined within 10-15 years. And it is expedient to place international peacekeeping forces in charge of security in the conflict zone. In the international aspect, Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan.” The hearings on Nagorno-Karabakh held at Armenia’s National Assembly in 2005 became an important event. Separate speeches and first of all by the heads of the defense and foreign policy departments, were of perspective value as they concretely outlined the main vector of official Yerevan’s policy towards the NKR. It was frankly stated that the first stage implied a transfer of several areas adjacent to the territory of the former NKAR currently controlled by the NKR Defense Army to Azerbaijan. The hearings did not determine what lands those would be, limiting to a documental presentation of Armenia’s official readiness for concessions. It was stated that in exchange Yerevan expects from the world community clear guarantees of security along the perimeter of the Armenian-Azerbaijani front and only in that case it is ready to provide to an international peacekeeping contingent control over the frontline. At the same time, Armenian authorities voiced three main points on which they cannot allow for concessions: a)Under no circumstance can Nagorno-Karabakh be part of Azerbaijan; b)Under no circumstance can Nagorno-Karabakh be an enclave; it must have a direct land connection with Armenia; c)International guarantees of security must be given in respect of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia’s Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan stated that international organizations involved in the peace process unequivocally imply the territory of the former NKAR under the notion “Nagorno-Karabakh”. According to the document entitled “Fair and Balanced Basic Principles of a Peaceful Settlement”: The first step on the way to settlement is likely to be the withdrawal of Armenian military units from their current positions. In reply to such a concession, the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh is likely to be provided with an opportunity to hold a plebiscite. Political science distinguishes two types of a referendum – mandatory and optional, but another form of immediate democracy is also practiced – plebiscite. In some countries, like France, it is considered to be a synonym of a referendum, however in most cases it has its own peculiarities: 1. A referendum differs from a plebiscite by the circumstance that voting is held at the request of the active part of the population stated in a corresponding petition. The role of self-government bodies is only in its organization. A plebiscite is not scheduled upon the initiative of self-government bodies; a passive role is assigned to people. 2. The peculiarity of a referendum is a preliminary discussion of the issue being put to vote by representatives of the people or some legislative measures that according to their sanction are submitted to the whole people for approval. In other words, a plebiscite differs from a referendum by the fact that its results are not a basis for making a law, whereas a referendum implies a mandatory legislative decision based on its results. In all likelihood “Fair and Balanced Basic Principles of a Peaceful Settlement” imply the holding of a plebiscite in Nagorno-Karabakh.
- Aris Ghazinyan
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Today in Armenian history- 1812 The Peace Treaty of Bucharest (Romania) is signed between Russia and Turkey. Bessarabia is attached to Russia.
- 1904 Vahan Manooelian is killed in the fighting at Gomer during the Sassoon Rebellion.
- 1926 Inauguration of Yerevan's first hydro-electric power station. Orjonikidze, Aghamali-Oghli, and Eliava give speeches.
- 1980 Commemoration of the 1500 th anniversary of David Anhaght (the Invincible).
- 1981 Death of William Saroyan (writer) in Fresno (USA). He was awarded a Pulitzer Prize in 1940. He was born in 1908.
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