WILL THE ARMENIA ELECTIONS CRISIS AFFECT LOBBYING IN WASHINGTON?

The short answer is yes. The violence of March 1 and serious charges of electoral manipulations are certainly causing discomfort among our friends in Congress and is being exploited by Turkish and Azerbaijan-funded lobbyists. News reports and pictures of protests and violence were widely covered in the mainstream American media. Comparisons with Georgian and Ukrainian color insurgencies were cited and some critics in the Armenian community have compared the tactics and strategies in Armenia’s election to that in Russia where Putin handpicked his successor, and impaired serious opposition. Violence and the imposition of a state of emergency were seen by many as political regression.
These factors are a serious problem for the Armenian Assembly and other political activists in the United States. Our challenge is to keep the relations between Armenia and the United States in harmony. There are important issues at stake. For one, it is essential to keep the Millennium Fund’s commitment of aid to rural Armenia intact and to raise substantially next year’s foreign aid appropriation, proposed at $24 million dollars, a historic low. And then our efforts to enact the Armenian Genocide Resolution will need a strong grassroots community effort, the level of which might be jeopardized because of community unhappiness over the election controversy.
Understandably, there is serious concern in American government circles that these problems in Armenia can risk destabilizing the volatile South Caucasus region. This concern is real. Within days after the police dispersal of the eleven-day protest rally in Freedom Square, Azeri forces attacked Karabakh positions in the northern front of the ceasefire line. This drew sharp rebukes from American and European officials and demonstrated the volatility of the Karabakh conflict. And on the diplomatic front, Baku introduced a new hostile resolution request in the United Nations General Assembly.
In the face of these problems the Armenian Assembly has endorsed the proposals of the United States and OSCE officials that call on the Armenian government to end the state of emergency, the military patrols in the capital, and the return of full civil rights to the public. We believe that the continuing arrests and prosecution of opposition leaders are contrary to the reestablishment of peace and internal tranquility. We urge lowering the level of angry rhetoric by government and opposition forces. We hope that the mass media in Armenia will be unimpeded to report news and express views without fear of government reprisals. The Constitutional Court has judged the election of Prime Minister Sargsian to be valid. That judgment of the highest judicial body needs to be respected but political reconciliation requires more. It requires honest and mature dialogue among all political forces with the view to return internal stability to Armenia. It also requires agreement on longer term processes that will insure the rights of the citizenry to free speech and assembly, and honest elections to choose leaders who will strengthen Armenia’s progress towards a democratic society.
Armenia is blessed with an intelligent and literate population. It has at its back the support of a strong diaspora anxious and prepared to aid the social, economic, and political development of their homeland. This support must not be squandered by internal disorder. The problematic side of the Armenian equation is the disadvantage of geography with which Armenia has been burdened throughout history. This is being exploited by Armenia’s hostile neighbors whose pipelines and new rail line have deliberately bypassed Armenia. And in addition, Armenia is the eastern boundary of Christianity in the region and that reality can pose new problems as Islamic fundamentalism gains increased power and influence.
These problems are constant but are exacerbated when internal disorder and political regression happens in Armenia. The Assembly and others are thus compelled to confront this reality as we seek strategies to influence American policies in favor of Armenia.
There is one favorable coincidence to Armenia’s election. The United States is in the midst of its own presidential election campaign. This period allows us to bring Armenian issues into sharp focus as presidential candidates seek support from the Armenian-American community. But on the political margins of the American body politic, is a growing Turkish and Azerbaijani community who are increasingly vocal and becoming a more formidable rival in Washington. Azerbaijan’s oil and gas potential and Turkey’s geographic advantages are serious factors in Ankara’s and Baku’s favor as their partisans attempt a counter influence.
Therefore, the Armenian Assembly calls for prompt actions in Yerevan to regain political and social reconciliation. We hope that sober leadership by all political forces will finally prevail. Armenia’s citizenry deserves no less and so do we who labor to assist the evolution of a free, prosperous, and democratic Armenia. March 13, 2008

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