OLD CONFLICT, NEW CHALLENGES: ARMENIA’S POST-ELECTION CRISIS
- The Republic of Armenia is once again facing a post-election crisis. This is not news, considering past elections. But there are several aspects of this post-election crisis that are especially worrisome and also particularly new. In part resembling previous elections, the February 19 presidential contest has been marred by allegations of serious voting irregularities, ranging from voter intimidation to flagrant vote buying. And as with the previous presidential elections, this ballot also represents a significant watershed for both the course of democracy and for political transition in Armenia.
Yet unlike past election-related political crises, the incidents of violence that were evident in this ballot are especially distressing. Such outright violence stems from the country’s political culture, which has become increasingly dominated by an intolerant political discourse marked by heated personal attacks rather than sober policy debate. This also mirrors the dominance of personality over platform, and the tendency for confrontation over accommodation that have come to define the last several years of Armenian politics.
But even more dangerous is the linkage between such politicized tension and an undercurrent of social discontent, driven by increasingly obvious inequalities in wealth and income and fueled by unrestrained corruption.
Although such a foundation of social discontent has tended to be obscured by a combination of general public apathy and the lure of economic growth, there are now clear signs that the failure to address these challenges has only exacerbated the current crisis. In this way, today’s confrontation is less about the election results alone, but reflects a deeper and more deadly internal situation.
A second factor making this election different from past contests lies in its context as a broader transition. More specifically, the May 2007 parliamentary election was not only an opening round in a new period of regional transition, but came in the wake of the adoption of a set of important constitutional reforms, which introduced a number of significant institutional reforms.
In this context, the recent presidential election was a watershed contest not only in terms of electing a new president, but because the real political battle will be quite different than ever before. Despite the current tension over the presidential election, the more serious confrontation to come will involve the parliament. It will feature a new prime minister, elected by the parliament, and no longer selected by the president. In fact, the elevation of a new, more powerful prime ministerial position will pose a significant test for the Armenian president. It may even present the president with a new rival, with an enhanced power base, and may even result in a divided government, hindered by an inherent struggle between a new president and premier.
This election was also different for a third important reason, seen in the fact that as much as the election heralds in a new post-Kocharian period, it is also an end of an era, with a new political elite now emerging.
In this context of political elites, Armenia resembles both of its neighbors, as the situation in Georgia and Azerbaijan also reflects the dominance of strong personalities. In the case of Azerbaijan, President Ilham Aliev faces little more than token opposition in his reelection set for later this year. Georgia too seems similarly limited to a narrow choice of supporting or opposing newly reelected President Mikheil Saakashvili, as the Georgian opposition seems as fractured and divided as ever.
But Armenia is now entering a new political era. The long-standing dominance of the country’s political elite is clearly fading. Ironically, even the two top rivals in the presidential election, Sargsyan and Ter-Petrosyan, represent an elite that has risen to political power from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But Armenia’s new political era will be defined by the rise of a new younger political elite, operating in the new arena of an empowered parliament.
And it is the parliament that will rapidly emerge as the true center of gravity for Armenian politics. This shift in significance away from an overly centralized presidential powerbase has already been matched by a devolution of power to the parliament, a trend that has already seen the emergence of a new opposition. Thus, although the outward demonstrations of the current post-election crisis remains fixated on the presidency, the real looming battle will be within the parliament.
But the gravest threats to stability and security in Armenia remain the unresolved internal challenges of socio-economic inequality and corruption. Until these challenges are overcome, the real danger is that the country’s mounting social discontent may reach a point of no return, and erupt into real social unrest. And until the Armenian authorities recognize the severity of this threat, the result will be not only a lack of legitimacy but a profound deficit of democracy for years to come.
( is a Yerevan-based analyst specializing in post-soviet politics, economics and security. His work appears in Jane’s and Radio Free Europe, among others.)
- Richard Giragosian
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Both Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan and his main opponent former president Levon Ter-Petrosyan voted today in Precinct 9/11.
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As of 5 p.m. Central Election Commission reports that 57.14 percent of Armenia’s 2.3 million voters have cast ballots.
Meanwhile, the latest round of allegations . . .
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Richard GiragosianThe Republic of Armenia is once again facing a post-election crisis. This is not news, considering past elections. But there are several aspects of this post-election crisis that are especially worrisome ...
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- 1837 Creation of the Armenian Supreme Ecclesiastic Council in Echmiadsin - the Synod attached to the Catholicos of All-Armenians.
- 1909 Birth of Taras Toosoozyan in Yekaterinodar (now Krasnodar). He was a Major-General of the Soviet Army. He was the Military Commissar of the Armenian SSR from 1950 to 1969.
- 1931 The Central Affairs Committee decides to establish a Radio-Broadcasting Committee.
- 1932 Birth of architect Arthur Tarkhanyan in Leninakan (Gyoomree). He designed and implemented the "Tsitsernakabert" Genocide Memorial Complex, the "Airarat" (formerly "Rossiya") movie theater, the Palace of Youth, "Zvartnotss" Airport, and many other buildings.
- 1938 Birth of Artavazd Peleshyan in Leninakan (Gyoomree). He became a famous artist, State Prize Laureate, and a master of the documentary film genre .
- 1939 The Armenian Supreme Soviet awards the right to the Opera and Ballet Theater of Yerevan, to be called the Alexander Spendarian Opera and Ballet Theatre.
- 1960 The Armenian Theater Association in Beirut decides to be known as the Vahram Papazyan Association.
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