CHANGING PRESIDENT OR POWER?: FEBRUARY VOTE VIEWED BY MANY AS POTENTIALLY ‘REVOLUTIONARY’ DESPITE WHAT CONSTITUTION HOLDS
- Editor’s Note: A version of this analysis was first published October 26, 2007 on ArmeniaNow. It has been updated in view of the approaching vote, and of at least one presidential candidate’s pledge to “dismantle” the government – a claim that could not be achieved without constitutional reform. While a majority of ordinary Armenians as well as politicians and analysts appear to be convinced that the February 19 presidential election will be all about changing or retaining power, a perusal of the country’s amended constitution may suggest they’re in the wrong.
Some of the amendments introduced in Armenia’s basic law in 2005 essentially curtail the so far sweeping powers of the country’s head of state (beginning in 2008) in favor of the legislature and the cabinet of ministers effectively formed by the political majority. In other words, the president who succeeds Robert Kocharyan in office early next year will admittedly have fewer instruments of power than his two predecessors to push his policy and rule the country ‘single-handedly’ as, according to the amended constitution, he will have to reckon with the political majority in parliament to a greater extent.
In particular, under Article 55 (point 2) of the Constitution currently in effect, the president can remand the law passed by the National Assembly with objections and recommendations requesting for new deliberations, but shall, within five days, sign and promulgate the law re-adopted by the National Assembly. Under Article 55 (point 4), we read that the president appoints the prime minister based on the distribution of seats in the National Assembly and consultations held with the parliamentary factions. At the same time, the president appoints and dismisses from office members of the government upon the recommendation of the prime minister. Under Article 74.1, the president dissolves the National Assembly if it does not give an approval to a government program two times in succession within two months. He may also dissolve the National Assembly upon the recommendation of the Parliament Speaker or the Prime Minister over its inaction to resolve on a draft law deemed urgent by a government decision, or for failing to convene for more than three months during a regular session, or if in the course of a regular session the National Assembly fails for more than three months to adopt a resolution on issues under debate. Under Article 75, the right to legislative initiative in the National Assembly belongs to the deputies and the government.
These amendments implying a greater role of parliament and a deviation from the presidential-style government underpinned extensive discussions preceding last May’s parliamentary elections, with analysts attaching unprecedented importance to the National Assembly to be formed as a result of those elections in the policies to be made in the future.
This leads some to conclude that the upcoming election in February will by no means become an election of “power change”, but will at best hold out an opportunity for other political parties to balance the pervasive power of the ruling Republican Party in the legislative and executive bodies that was increased due to its landslide victory in the latest parliamentary polls.
“The upcoming presidential election cannot solve the issue of ‘power change’ under the changed constitution. Why does everyone conceal it? They even cannot confess to themselves that there is no changing power through this election,” veteran opposition member and chairman of the National Democratic Party Shavarsh Kocharyan thundered during a meeting with reporters last October.
Member of parliament Victor Dallakyan, who is not affiliated with any party or group, has suggested that three types of leadership may be formed in Armenia as a result of the February vote: a monolithic power (if the government-backed candidate wins), a competitive power (if an opposition member wins), and a confrontational power (if a radical opposition candidate wins). At the same time, according to the lawmaker, it is “how to do” rather than “what to do” that matters most for Armenia today.
“A president who will have problems with legitimacy will pose a threat to the country, as he will be vulnerable to the challenges of the outside world,” Dallakyan said.
Meanwhile, a majority of pundits believe a possible change of power will provoke what is conventionally called in Armenian politics as a ‘rat race’ within the pro-establishment circles, including the currently Republican-controlled parliament. They suggest that if the country’s former leader or some other opposition candidate can win the election, there will be a ‘reversal of fortune’ to what happened in 1998 when Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s forced resignation as president was followed by a dramatic ‘change of allegiances’ among lawmakers thereto representing his loyalist faction in parliament.
The 1998 parliament was only a year away from the regular elections, while the powers of the current parliament in Armenia will expire only in 2012. This means that if such an election outcome is not followed by a ‘rat race’, the president with fewer opportunities to dissolve the legislative body will have to work with a potentially antagonized parliament for at least the next four years, which may lead to a crisis of power in the country with elements resembling the situation in Ukraine in the past few years.
Political analyst David Petrosyan, however, thinks that with the comeback of the ex-president to major league politics and considering the steps he is taking, “Armenia has all chances to hold elections that will lead to a ‘power change’.”
“If Levon Ter-Petrosyan manages to win the election, the parliamentary majority is more likely to support the [new] president than the prime minister and the latter will simply have to resign as a result of this election,” he says. “But if Serzh Sargsyan wins, then a totally authoritarian regime will replace the existing ‘authoritarian regime with a democratic façade’.”
Meanwhile, the increased weight of the head of government can be seen even on the example of Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan, who has effectively eclipsed President Robert Kocharyan in most matters pertaining to domestic and foreign policies in the months following his party’s taking control of parliament. Some analysts, however, take another view of the situation, saying that this is only natural in the case of an outgoing president and an increasingly influential prime minister eying imminent presidency.
The fact that the next president will have more limited powers than his predecessor was also confirmed by former president Levon Ter-Petrosyan himself in November as he spoke to an audience of students and young people. Ter-Petrosyan, who is posing as a radical opposition to the current authorities, admitted he would have to work with the Republican majority in parliament if elected.
Stepan Zakaryan, who resigned his membership in Stepan Demirchyan’s People’s Party of Armenia late last week (January 7-13, 2008) over disagreement with the latter’s support for Ter-Petrosyan’s election bid, challenges some of the election pledges of opposition candidates, including Ter-Petrosyan, who promise to introduce drastic changes if elected. Zakaryan, in particular, challenges Ter-Petrosyan’s famously stated intention of “dismantling” the current “gangster state”.
“The only candidate who will be capable of making drastic changes, if he wants to, is [current prime minister and leader of the ruling Republican Party] Serzh Sargsyan, as he will enjoy the support of his fellow party members and coalition partners in parliament,” he said. “The changes in the constitution affected in 2005, if you like, turned Armenia from a semi-presidential into a semi-parliamentary state and the opposition lost its battle for power in the May parliamentary elections. The ‘train has left the station’.”
According to Zakaryan, this is true for cases when the matter does not concern a “revolution”.
Remarkably, speaking at his first press conference in more than a decade last Friday (January 11, 2008) Ter-Petrosian claimed that “senior government and law-enforcement officials will start defying government orders in 10-20 days.”
Ter-Petrosyan said that “being conscious of my rights, being well aware of our constitution and laws and international legislation, I would take all steps stemming from that legislation: demonstrations, marches, pickets, court actions.”
“This is going to be my path,” he said, adding that in any case he will steer clear of any violent actions.
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- 1830 Following Sultan Mahmood's decree and the advice of the French, British, and Russian ambassadors, the Armenian Catholics in Turkey were given a Patriarchate and their own administrative organization.
- 1888 Birth, in Constantinople, of the actor Vahram Papazyan. He is considered to have no equal in the Armenian theater.
- 1906 Birth of composer Ashot Satian. He died in 1958.
- 1911 Birth of theater personality Gevorg Ashughyan.
- 1990 Start of hostilities between Armenian and Azeri Turkish forces near Raskh.
- 2001 The French Senate recognizes the 1915 Genocide of the Armenians in the Ottoman Empire.
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