SERZH SARGSYAN IS NOT IN THE STATE OF IMBALANCE

- Mr. Iskandaryan, the government is finally formed. There were no surprises despite the expectations of new designations. How relevant is the current government to the created situation?
- I don’t quite agree that there were not surprising changes. It depends on which period we compare these changes with. It is quite understandable that compared to the past two weeks the designations cannot be considered surprising. But we should agree that three months ago hardly anyone could forecast the current government cabinet. The mentioned configuration is a consequence of the pre and post electoral developments, including the events of March 1-2. Principally the current government composition is a sign of a compromise on the part of the government.
- Compromise made among who? Do you mean the President and the collation parties or you mean a broader circle?
- After being elected President Serzh Sargsyan should have formed the government based on the requirements and demands imposed by the created inner political situation. I mean the circumstances created by the post-election developments, continuity of Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s movement as well as parties, which became part of the recently formed coalition, financial groups and the attitude of individuals. It is understandable that if everything was to be decided by the President then he would pick the technocratic method of government formation and implementation of painful but strict reforms to fight against corruption. However the reality is different. Even in the condition of having an absolute majority in the Parliament the President is not in an imbalanced situation. He also feels the influence of various groups of the society. Meanwhile it would be difficult to find a pure Prime Minister and Ministers, who wouldn’t have had any participation in the past developments of the country. We have what we have now. There were people, who Sargsyan wasn’t able to dismiss and avoid their involvement in the government.

- Let us talk whether the current political collation will be able to play a role of a support for the President for the coming five years. Let us also talk whether the collation ill be able to implement the reforms planned by the government.
- Before making reforms the government has to recover its legitimacy. Judging from the conduct of the presidential elections in regard of post-electoral developments, the government was illegitimated. In this regard the situation is pretty similar to 1996 as regardless of the outcome and motive of the use of force the government becomes destabilized in the eyes of the society even if the use of force proves to be efficient. At any rate, only the weak government uses law-enforcers to stabilize the situation. The strong government just doesn’t need it because it doesn’t have a major problem with the credo of the majority of the society.
- Is there any direct link between the planned reforms and the legitimacy?
- There is link because these reforms are going to be painful. Let me bring an example from Russia. During his first term as President Vladimir Putin was able to resolve the issue of equal space between the business structures and the government and such a thing could be done only by a legitimate President. Our government should also find solution to this issue. But in our case the complication is created by the international economic state. It means that on the way of implementing reforms the government is going to meet obstacles because life is not principally improving. These reforms are going to be painful and in these conditions we need a high level of people’s trust. If there is this trust the government will be able to implement successful and efficient reforms.
- Will it be able to maintain the coalition with the current representation in the period of reform implementation? The member parties of the coalition have quite many contradictions in their policies and ideologies.
- Let us first start from the point that there is no ideological ground in the creation of the current coalition. Moreover, perhaps only one of the four coalition parties the ARF has a clear ideology. Having said that, the dialog is going to be around technical agreements and policies and not ideology. As of the whole maintenance of the coalition then it depends on how strong the government is. By saying strong I don’t mean the strength literally, the police or security structures. I mean legitimacy. Therefore, the point is about political resources and political force. Of course, no analyst will take the responsibility of predicting the activity and maintenance of the coalition for the long run; let’s say for the coming five years. Finally till the parliamentary elections we have 4 years. During certain parties of the coalition may go to the opposition front as it happened after the 2003 coalition. Meanwhile let us not forget that the rats are running from the sinking ship. If the government is strong enough, that is legitimate, then water won’t flow in the ship. And no one needs to be confused or be in fuss.
- By the way there are allegations from the opposition front that the best way out of the created hard situation would be the conduct of new and extraordinary Parliamentary elections. But many people are quite pessimistic in this regard because if the government determines to do so it will be the reason of the rat run. What is your attitude about the possibility of such a situation?
- To be honest, at this point I don’t see any grounds for the conduct of new elections. I don’t even see any prerequisites for such a step. It is quite evident that Levon Ter-Petrosyan and his team will retain the wave of discontent and even try to make it more intensive. I don’t know what other reserves the opposition has to win but I don’t exclude its possibility.
And finally let us take into account that we have winter coming up and politically it is the most passive season. The most painful and tragic events of the post-electoral period are gone. It is not excluded that soon the society will realize that the best way to overcome the situation and make life better is to take gradual steps instead of a revolution. Indeed, the incarnation of such logic will highly depend on the activity of the government. In this regard, it is a fact that the reforms are inevitable but if they don’t prove to be effective it will be senseless and hopeless to expect gradual relief of the tension within the society and recovery of legitimacy.
Vahan VARDANYAN

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